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Fiscal Imbalances, Capital Inflows, and the Real Exchange Rate; The Case of Turkey

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  • E. Murat Ucer
  • C. John McDermott
  • Pierre-Richard Agénor

Abstract

This paper examines the links between fiscal policy, capital inflows, and the real exchange rate in Turkey since the late 1980s. After an overview of recent macroeconomic developments in Turkey, a vector autoregression model is estimated linking government spending, interest rate differentials, capital inflows, and the temporary component of the real exchange rate. Positive shocks to government spending and capital inflows lead to an appreciation of the temporary component of the real exchange rate, whereas positive shocks to the uncovered interest rate differential lead to a capital inflow and an appreciation of the temporary component of the real exchange rate. The findings highlight the role of fiscal adjustment in restoring macroeconomic stability.

Suggested Citation

  • E. Murat Ucer & C. John McDermott & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1997. "Fiscal Imbalances, Capital Inflows, and the Real Exchange Rate; The Case of Turkey," IMF Working Papers 97/1, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:97/1
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    Cited by:

    1. Simplice A. Asongu, 2014. "Does money matter in Africa?: New empirics on long- and short-run effects of monetary policy on output and prices," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 142-180, November.
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    5. Levent Korap, 2006. "An Analysis of Central Bank Interventions on Forex Market For The Post-Crisis Period," Working Papers 2006/4, Turkish Economic Association.
    6. Pelin Oge Guney, 2007. "Fiscal Theory of Exchange Rate Determination: Empirical Evidence from Turkey," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(7), pages 1-12.
    7. Inci Gumus, 2002. "Effects of the Interest Rate Defense on Exchange Rates During the 1994 Crisis in Turkey," Working Papers 0214, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    8. Aysen Arac & Funda Telatar & Erdinc Telatar, 2012. "Investigating the Time Varying Nature of the Link between Inflation and Currency Substitution in the Turkish Economy," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers 20122, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics.
    9. Simplice A Asongu, 2013. "A Short-run Schumpeterian Trip to Embryonic African Monetary Zones," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 859-873.
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    12. F. Kemal Kýzýlca, 2008. "Capital Flows and the Non-Tradables in the Turkish Economy after Capital Account Liberalization," Papers of the Annual IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics,in: Proceedings of the Conference on Emerging Economic Issues in a Globalizing World, pages 108-118 Izmir University of Economics.
    13. Simplice Asongu, 2016. "New empirics of monetary policy dynamics: evidence from the CFA franc zones," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 164-204, June.
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    15. Simplice A. Asongu, 2013. "Fighting consumer price inflation in Africa: What do dynamics in money, credit, efficiency and size tell us?," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 39-60, April.
    16. Merih Uctum & Remzi Uctum, 2005. "Portfolio Flows, Foreign Direct Investment, Crises," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 224, Society for Computational Economics.
    17. Celasun, Oya & Denizer, Cevdet & Dong He, 1999. "Capital flows, macroeconomic management, and the financial system - Turkey, 1989-97," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2141, The World Bank.
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    19. Funda Telatar & Erdinc Telatar, 2003. "The relationship between inflation and different sources of inflation uncertainty in Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(7), pages 431-435.
    20. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2007:i:7:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Rafiq, Sohrab, 2010. "Fiscal stance, the current account and the real exchange rate: Some empirical estimates from a time-varying framework," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 276-290, November.
    22. Korap, Levent, 2010. "Identification of ‘pull’ & ‘push’ factors for the portfolio flows: SVAR evidence from the Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 24275, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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