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Estimation of the Near Unit Root Model of Real Exchange Rates

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  • C. John McDermott

Abstract

The time-series properties of real exchange rates, on a number of definitions, for 22 industrial countries during 1979-95 were used to re-examine whether PPP holds. It is shown that if real exchange rates reverted to a constant mean slowly, say by five percent a month, then at standard levels of significance we should expect 11 of the 22 series examined to yield evidence of mean reversion and to reject that hypothesis of a unit root. Using models that imply a constant unconditional mean or trend-stationary productivity changes, we find that only one of the 22 real exchange rates shows evidence against unit roots. This low rate of rejection of unit roots in real exchange rates can be construed as evidence against PPP.

Suggested Citation

  • C. John McDermott, 1996. "Estimation of the Near Unit Root Model of Real Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 96/50, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:96/50
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    Cited by:

    1. Ganguly, Srideep & Breuer, Janice Boucher, 2010. "Nominal exchange rate volatility, relative price volatility, and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 840-856, September.
    2. Paul Cashin & C. John McDermott, 2006. "Parity Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Fast, Slow, or Not at All?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(1), pages 1-5.
    3. Yihui Lan, 2003. "The Long-Term Behaviour of Exchange Rates, Part V: The Stationarity of Exchange Rates," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 03-09, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.

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