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Banking System Fragility; Likelihood Versus Timing of Failure: An Application to the Mexican Financial Crisis

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  • Robert Billings
  • Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo
  • Ceyla Pazarbasioglu

Abstract

This paper tests empirically the proposition that bank fragility is determined by bank-specific factors, macroeconomic conditions and potential contagion effects. The methodology allows for the variables that determine bank failure to differ from those that influence banks’ time to failure (or survival rate). Based on the indicators of fragility of individual banks, we construct an index of fragility for the banking system. The framework is applied to the Mexican financial crisis beginning in 1994. In the case of Mexico, bank-specific variables as well as contagion effects explain the likelihood of bank failure, while macroeconomic variables largely determine the timing of failure.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Billings & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1996. "Banking System Fragility; Likelihood Versus Timing of Failure: An Application to the Mexican Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 96/142, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:96/142
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. José Eduardo Gómez-González & Inés Paola Orozco Hinojosa, 2010. "Un Modelo de alerta temprana para el sistema financiero colombiano," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 28(62), pages 124-147, June.
    2. Liliana Rojas-Suarez, 2001. "Rating Banks in Emerging Markets: What Credit Rating Agencies Should Learn from Financial Indicators," Working Paper Series WP01-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    3. Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "Do depositors punish banks for"bad"behavior? : market discipline in Argentina, Chile, and Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2058, The World Bank.
    4. Meral Varish Kiefer, 2014. "Bank failures and mergers in Turkey: 1992-2014," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 2(5), pages 31-49, October.
    5. Hulya Bayir, 2001. "Measuring the Impact of Full Coverage Deposit Insurance Policy in a Probit Model : A Study of the Privately Owned Commercial Banks in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 1(1), pages 1-23.
    6. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Nicholas M. Kiefer, 2006. "Explaining time to bank failure in Colombia during the financial crisis of the late 1990s," Borradores de Economia 400, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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