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The Feldstein-Horioka Test of International Capital Mobility; Is it Feasible?


  • W. J. Jansen


Feldstein and Horioka (1980) argued that the correlation of saving and investment in a cross-section of countries may provide a test of global capital mobility. This paper argues that neither the long-run nor the short-run correlation can serve as a reliable basis for such a test. The intertemporal budget constraint implies that each country’s saving and investment should be cointegrated over time. Simulations show that the cross-section regressions used in the literature will produce correlations that strongly tend towards one, regardless of the degree of capital mobility. Although the short-run correlation is not affected by the intertemporal budget constraint, the empirical analysis shows it is primarily a country-specific business cycle fact.

Suggested Citation

  • W. J. Jansen, 1996. "The Feldstein-Horioka Test of International Capital Mobility; Is it Feasible?," IMF Working Papers 96/100, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:96/100

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Cukierman, Alex, 2008. "Central bank independence and monetary policymaking institutions -- Past, present and future," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 722-736, December.
    2. Peter Stella & Seiichi Shimizu & Simon T Gray & Ulrich H Klueh & Alexandre Chailloux, 2008. "Central Bank Response to the 2007–08 Financial Market Turbulence; Experiences and Lessons Drawn," IMF Working Papers 08/210, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Charles Enoch, 1997. "Transparency and Ambiguity in Central Bank Safety Net Operations," IMF Working Papers 97/138, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    5. Rebecca McCaughrin & Simon T Gray & Alexandre Chailloux, 2008. "Central Bank Collateral Frameworks; Principles and Policies," IMF Working Papers 08/222, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Financial intermediary leverage and value at risk," Staff Reports 338, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1999. "The Future of Monetary Policy: The Central Bank as an Army With Only a Signal Corps," NBER Working Papers 7420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kuan-Min Wang & Yuan-Ming Lee & Thanh-Binh Nguyen Thi, 2009. "Business-Cycle Asymmetry and Causality Between Foreign Direct Investment and Fixed Capital Formation," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 11(Number Sp), pages 698-721, November.
    2. Christophe Tavéra & Jean-Christophe Poutineau & Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte & Isabelle Cadoret & Arthur Charpentier, 2015. "The “mother of all puzzles” at thirty: A meta-analysis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 141, pages 80-96.
    3. repec:cii:cepiei:2015-q1-141-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Taylor, Alan M., 2002. "A century of current account dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 725-748, November.
    5. Eiriksson, Agust A., 2011. "The saving-investment correlation and origins of productivity shocks," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 40-47, January.
    6. Apergis, Nicholas & Tsoumas, Chris, 2009. "A survey of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: What has been done and where we stand," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 64-76, June.
    7. Malgorzata Jakubiak & Pawel Kaczorowski & Joanna Siwinska-Gorzelak & Tomasz Tokarski, 1999. "Private, Public and Foreign Savings," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0186, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.


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