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Hysteresis in Exports

Author

Listed:
  • Giorgia Giovannetti
  • Hossein Samiei

Abstract

This paper presents an empirical examination of the importance of hysteresis in international trade. An econometric model of export determination is developed where the presence of sunk costs causes discontinuous behavior and hysteresis so that individual exporters’ decision to stay in or out of the market depends on the current value of the exchange rate as well as its past history. The aggregate level of exports is then determined by the proportion of exporters that stay in the market. The resulting non-linear model is estimated using data on manufacturing exports for the United States, Germany, and Japan. The paper finds strong evidence in favor of the presence of pricing-to-market and hysteresis only in the case of Japanese exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Giorgia Giovannetti & Hossein Samiei, 1995. "Hysteresis in Exports," IMF Working Papers 95/52, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:95/52
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlin, Wendy & Glyn, Andrew & Van Reenen, John, 2001. "Export Market Performance of OECD Countries: An Empirical Examination of the Role of Cost Competitiveness," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(468), pages 128-162, January.
    2. Marco Alderighi & Alberto A. Gaggero, 2012. "Air Accessibility and Export Capability of the Italian Manufacturing Industry," L'industria, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 4, pages 635-662.
    3. Mahadevan, Renuka & Suardi, Sandy, 2008. "A dynamic analysis of the impact of uncertainty on import- and/or export-led growth: The experience of Japan and the Asian Tigers," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 155-174, March.
    4. Keld Laursen & Valentina Meliciani, 2000. "The importance of technology-based intersectoral linkages for market share dynamics," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(4), pages 702-723, December.
    5. bruno amable & jerome henry & frederic lordon & richard topol, 2005. "Complex Remanence vs. Simple Persistence: Are Hysteresis and Unit-Root Processes observationally equivalent?," Computational Economics 0501001, EconWPA.
    6. Gilles Saint-Paul, 2009. "Le dollar, l’innovation et l’emploi," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 94(1), pages 107-115.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exports; International trade; exchange rate; export prices; exchange rate changes; exchange rate pass; exchange rates;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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