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Saving Behavior in Low and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison

  • Masao Ogaki
  • Jonathan David Ostry
  • Carmen Reinhart

The impact of changes in real interest rates on saving and growth is a central issue in development economics. According to one familiar view, a financial liberalization program which increases real interest rates should encourage saving, thereby boosting investment and growth. While such liberalizations have indeed typically succeeded in raising real interest rates, their impact on private saving has been mixed. This paper uses macroeconomic data for a sample of countries with diverse income levels to estimate a model in which the intertemporal elasticity of substitution varies with the level of wealth. The estimated parameters are then used to calculate, in the context of a simple endogenous growth model, the responsiveness of saving to real interest rate changes for countries at differing stages of development.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 95/3.

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Length: 38
Date of creation: 01 Jan 1995
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:95/3
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  1. Ogaki, Masao & Park, Joon Y., 1997. "A cointegration approach to estimating preference parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 107-134.
  2. Jonathan D. Ostry & Joaquim Levy, 1995. "Household Saving in France: Stochastic Income and Financial Deregulation," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 375-397, June.
  3. Giovannini, Alberto, 1985. "Saving and the real interest rate in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2-3), pages 197-217, August.
  4. Sebastian Edwards, 1987. "Anticipated Protectionist Policies, Real Exchange Rates and the Current Account," UCLA Economics Working Papers 437, UCLA Department of Economics.
  5. Bayoumi, Tamim, 1993. "Financial Deregulation and Household Saving," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(421), pages 1432-43, November.
  6. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Rose, Andrew K., 1992. "An empirical evaluation of the macroeconomic effects of tarrifs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 63-79, February.
  7. Atish R. Ghosh & Jonathan David Ostry, 1994. "Export Instability and the External Balance in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 94/8, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Park, J.Y. & Ogaki, M., 1991. "Inference in Cointegrated Models Using VAR Prewhitening to Estimate Shortrun Dynamics," RCER Working Papers 281, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  9. Rebelo, Sergio, 1991. "Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 500-521, June.
  10. Michael Sarel, 1994. "On the Dynamics of Economic Growth," IMF Working Papers 94/138, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Donald W.K. Andrews & Christopher J. Monahan, 1990. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 942, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  12. Frenkel, Jacob A & Razin, Assaf, 1986. "Fiscal Policies in the World Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 564-94, June.
  13. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Webb, Steven B & Corsetti, Giancarlo, 1992. "Household Saving in Developing Countries: First Cross-Country Evidence," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 529-47, September.
  14. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
  15. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1994. "Intertemporal consumption substitution and inflation stabilization:An empirical investigation," MPRA Paper 13427, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Razin, Assaf & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1983. "Trade taxes and the current account," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 55-57.
  17. Easterly, William, 1991. "Economic stagnation, fixed factors, and policy thresholds," Policy Research Working Paper Series 795, The World Bank.
  18. Jonathan David Ostry & Carmen Reinhart, 1991. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence From Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 91/100, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Masao Ogaki & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Measuring Intertemporal Substitution: The Role of Durable Goods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 1078-1098, October.
  20. Atkeson, A. & Ogaki, M., 1991. "Wealth-Varying Intertemporal Elasticities of Substitution Evidence from Panel and Aggregate Data," RCER Working Papers 303, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  21. Haque, Nadeem U & Montiel, Peter, 1989. "Consumption in Developing Countries: Tests for Liquidity Constraintsand Finite Horizons," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 408-15, August.
  22. Jonathan D. Ostry, 1988. "The Balance of Trade, Terms of Trade, and Real Exchange Rate: An Intertemporal Optimizing Framework," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(4), pages 541-573, December.
  23. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1987. "On the costs of temporary policy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 245-261, October.
  24. Vicente Galbis, 1993. "High Real Interest Rates Under Financial Liberalization: Is there a Problem?," IMF Working Papers 93/7, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
  26. Svensson, Lars E O & Razin, Assaf, 1983. "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 97-125, February.
  27. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Efficient estimation and testing of cointegrating vectors in the presence of deterministic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 87-121.
  28. Vaidyanathan, Geetha, 1993. "Consumption, liquidity constraints and economic development," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 591-610.
  29. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521589840 is not listed on IDEAS
  30. Reinhart, Carmen & Ostry, Jonathan, 1992. "Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 6976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  31. Antonio Estache, 1994. "World Development Report: Infrastructure for Development," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/44144, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  32. Van Wijnbergen, S., 1983. "Interest rate management in LDC's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 433-452, September.
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