Trade Reforms of Uncertain Duration and Real Uncertainty; A First Approximation
This paper examines trade reforms of uncertain duration undertaken in economies subject to real foreign and domestic shocks. These reforms induce consumption and import booms regardless of whether they succeed or fail and of the degree of intertemporal elasticity of substitution. If tariff revenue is rebated, a recession follows the boom, but without rebates a boom or a recession may follow depending on the outcome of the reform. Consumption fluctuations reflect imperfect credibility and real shocks, and the credibility component depends on the mean and risk of real asset returns. Thus, observed booms are a noisy signal of imperfect credibility. Quantitatively, lack of credibility produces sizable consumption cycles, but generally smaller than those induced by real disturbances.
|Date of creation:||01 Apr 1994|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Vegh, Carlos, 1994.
"Targeting the real exchange rate: Theory and evidence,"
13412, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Calvo, Guillermo A. & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Targeting the real exchange rate: theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 97-133, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Vegh, Carlos, 1994. "Targeting the real exchange rate," MPRA Paper 13765, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carlos A. VÃ©gh Gramont & Guillermo Calvo & Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "Targeting the Real Exchange Rate; Theory and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 94/22, .
- Van Wijnbergen, S., 1991.
"Trade Reform, Policy Uncertainty and the Current Account : A Non-Expected Utility Approach,"
9148, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1992. "Trade Reform, Policy Uncertainty, and the Current Account: A Non-Expected-Utility Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 626-633, June.
- van Wijnbergen, S., 1991. "Trade reform, policy uncertainty and the current account : A non-expected utility approach," Discussion Paper 1991-48, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1990. "Trade Reform, Policy Uncertainty and the Current Account : A Non-Expected Utility Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 441, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992.
"Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
- Jonathan David Ostry & Carmen Reinhart, 1991. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks; Evidence From Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 91/100, .
- Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1995.
"Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination,"
13898, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 357-378, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:94/45. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.