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How Large Was the the Output Collapse in Russia? Alternative Estimates and Welfare Implications

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  • Evgeny Gavrilenkov
  • Vincent Koen

Abstract

The divergence between production and consumption indicators in Russia suggests that the magnitude of the output collapse in the course of the transition is overstated by the official statistics. Alternative estimates for real GDP are derived, which reconcile the official production and consumption data. Based on cautious assumptions, real GDP appears to have declined cumulatively by no more than one third rather than by one half. The drop in household welfare is much smaller still, as the output mix shifts and deadweight losses are sharply reduced.

Suggested Citation

  • Evgeny Gavrilenkov & Vincent Koen, 1994. "How Large Was the the Output Collapse in Russia? Alternative Estimates and Welfare Implications," IMF Working Papers 94/154, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:94/154
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Welfens, 1999. "Overcoming the Russian transformation crisis," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 34(3), pages 144-151, May.
    2. Ageeva Svetlana & Suslov Nikita, 2005. "Energy Consumption and GDP in Market and Transitional Economies," EERC Working Paper Series 05-05e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    3. Grootaert, Christiaan & Braithwaite, Jeanine, 1998. "Poverty correlates and indicator-based targeting in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1942, The World Bank.
    4. Klugman, Jeni & Braithwaite, Jeanine, 1998. "Poverty in Russia during the Transition: An Overview," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 13(1), pages 37-58, February.
    5. Dirk Bezemer & Uwe Dulleck & Paul Frijters, 2003. "Socialism, Capitalism, and Transition - Coordination of Economic Relations and Output Performance," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 168a, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    6. Bryan W. Roberts, 1997. "Welfare change and the elimination of the shortage economy in Russia: some representative-household results," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 5(2), pages 427-451, November.
    7. M S Mohanty & Marc Klau, 2001. "What determines inflation in emerging market economies?," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries, volume 8, pages 1-38 Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Kasper Bartholdy, 1997. "Old and new problems in the estimation of national accounts in transiton economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 5(1), pages 131-146, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russian Federation; real gdp; price liberalization; world prices; growth rates; net exports;

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