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Do Capital Flows Reflect Economic Fundamentals in Developing Countries?

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  • Atish R. Ghosh
  • Jonathan David Ostry

Abstract

This paper proposes a methodology for testing whether capital flows to developing countries are determined by economic fundamentals or by purely speculative forces. We use the intertemporal optimizing approach to current account determination as our benchmark for judging the behavior of capital flows. According to this approach, capital flows should act as a buffer to smooth consumption in the face of temporary shocks to national cash flow, defined as output less investment less government expenditures. The results are encouraging. For a large sample of developing countries, economic fundamentals are indeed found to be the most important determinant of capital flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Atish R. Ghosh & Jonathan David Ostry, 1993. "Do Capital Flows Reflect Economic Fundamentals in Developing Countries?," IMF Working Papers 93/34, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:93/34
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    1. Donald J Mathieson & Liliana Rojas-Suárez, 1992. "Liberalization of the Capital Account; Experiences and Issues," IMF Working Papers 92/46, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    3. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters,in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Harberger, Arnold C, 1980. "Vignettes on the World Capital Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 331-337, May.
    6. Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-1273, November.
    7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    9. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, April.
    10. Enrique G. Mendoza, 1992. "Robustness of Macroeconomic Indicators of Capital Mobility," IMF Working Papers 92/111, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ramkishen Rajan, 2010. "The Currency and Financial Crisis in Southeast Asia: A Case of 'Sudden Death' or Death Foretold'?," Working Papers id:2583, eSocialSciences.
    2. Danish Ahmed SIDDIQUI & Mohsin Hasnain AHMAD & Muhammad ASIM, 2013. "The causal relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Current Account: an empirical investigation for Pakistan economy," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(8(585)), pages 91-106, August.
    3. Ramkishen S. Rejan, 1998. "The Currency And Financial Crisis In Southeast Asia - A Case Of `Sudden Deathã¢Â‚¬Â„¢ Or `Death Foretoldã¢Â‚¬Â„¢," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22381, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    4. Maxfield, Sylvia, 1998. "Understanding the Political Implications of Financial Internationalization in Emerging Market Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1201-1219, July.
    5. Joseph Bisignano, 1996. "Varieties of monetary operating procedures: balancing monetary objectives with market efficiency," BIS Working Papers 35, Bank for International Settlements.

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