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The Savings Trap and Economic Take-Off

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  • Atish R. Ghosh
  • Carlos M. Asilis

Abstract

We develop an overlapping generations model of a developing economy in which ‘culture’ and technology interact to determine savings, investment and growth. Investment is assumed to involve intermediation or other costs which may, in each period, result in either of two stable equilibria for the savings rate. At the “good” equilibrium, savings and growth are higher than at the “bad” equilibrium, whether the country attains the good or bad equilibrium in any period depends on each individual’s belief about the savings behavior of other agents in the economy. The model implies that fiscal policy or public activities to facilitate private investment can influence saving. In particular, a sustained period of fiscal restraint can shift the economy onto a higher savings and growth path.

Suggested Citation

  • Atish R. Ghosh & Carlos M. Asilis, 1992. "The Savings Trap and Economic Take-Off," IMF Working Papers 92/91, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:92/91
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Blundell & Alan Duncan & Costas Meghir, 1998. "Estimating Labor Supply Responses Using Tax Reforms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 827-862, July.
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    3. Allingham, Michael G. & Sandmo, Agnar, 1972. "Income tax evasion: a theoretical analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 323-338, November.
    4. Eduardo Engel & James R. Hines Jr., 1998. "Understanding Tax Evasion Dynamics," Documentos de Trabajo 47, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    5. Roger H. Gordon & Joel Slemrod, 1998. "Are "Real" Responses to Taxes Simply Income Shifting Between Corporate and Personal Tax Bases?," NBER Working Papers 6576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Friedman, Eric & Johnson, Simon & Kaufmann, Daniel & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 2000. "Dodging the grabbing hand: the determinants of unofficial activity in 69 countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 459-493, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Prof. Dr. Robert Holzmann, 1994. "Funded and Private Pensions for Eastern European Countries in Transition?," Public Economics 9405004, EconWPA.
    2. Arellano, Cristina & Bulír, Ales & Lane, Timothy & Lipschitz, Leslie, 2009. "The dynamic implications of foreign aid and its variability," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 87-102, January.
    3. Nohra Rey de Marulanda & Julio Guzmán, 2003. "Inequidad, desarrollo humano y política social: Importancia de las "Condiciones Iniciales"," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1211, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Nohra Rey de Marulanda & Julio Guzmán, 2003. "Inequidad, desarrollo humano y política social: Importancia de las "Condiciones Iniciales"," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 10598, Inter-American Development Bank.

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