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Using An EC-Wide Monetary Aggregate in Stage Two of EMU

Author

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  • Peter B. Kenen
  • Tamim Bayoumi

Abstract

This paper looks at whether the aggregate ERM money supply has been a useful predictor of short-term changes in inflation and growth, and long-term trends in price levels among the core ERM countries. The evidence suggests that over the period since 1987, when there have been no realignments, the ERM money supply performs at least as well, and arguably better, than the individual national aggregates in predicting nominal aggregates such as inflation and the price level, while neither money supply is a good predictor of real activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter B. Kenen & Tamim Bayoumi, 1992. "Using An EC-Wide Monetary Aggregate in Stage Two of EMU," IMF Working Papers 92/56, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:92/56
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    Cited by:

    1. Miguel Lebre de Freitas, 2006. "Currency Substitution and Money Demand in Euroland," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(3), pages 275-287, September.
    2. Ivo Arnold, 1996. "Fallacies in the interpretation of a european monetary aggregate," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 132(4), pages 753-762, December.
    3. Renato Filosa, 1995. "Money demand stability and currency substitution in six European countries (1980-1992)," BIS Working Papers 30, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Alberto Giovannini & Bart Turtelboom, 1992. "Currency Substitution," NBER Working Papers 4232, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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