IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises

  • Robert P Flood
  • Jagdeep S. Bhandari
  • Pierre-Richard Agénor

This paper reviews recent developments in the theoretical and empirical analysis of balance-of-payments crises. A simple analytical model highlighting the process leading to such crises is first developed. The basic framework is then extended to deal with a variety of issues, such as: alternative post-collapse regimes, uncertainty, real sector effects, external borrowing and capital controls, imperfect asset substitutability, sticky prices, and endogenous policy switches. Empirical evidence on the collapse of exchange rate regimes is also examined, and the major implications of the analysis for macroeconomic policy discussed.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=975
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 91/99.

as
in new window

Length: 64
Date of creation: 01 Oct 1991
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:91/99
Contact details of provider: Postal:
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA

Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Robert P. Flood & Peter M. Garber, 1981. "Gold monetization and gold discipline," International Finance Discussion Papers 190, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Djajic, Slobodan, 1989. "Dynamics of the exchange rate in anticipation of pegging," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 559-571, December.
  3. Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Stochastic Process Switching: Some Simple Solutions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 241-50, January.
  4. Salant, Stephen W, 1983. "The Vulnerability of Price Stabilization Schemes to Speculative Attack," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 1-38, February.
  5. Sebastian Edwards & Peter Montiel, 1989. "Devaluation Crises and the Macroeconomic Consequences of Postponed Adjustment in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 2866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Blackburn, Keith & Christensen, Michael, 1989. "Monetary Policy and Policy Credibility: Theories and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 1-45, March.
  7. Robert E. Cumby & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1987. "Finanial Policy and Speculative Runs with a Crawling Peg: Argentina 1979-1981," NBER Working Papers 2376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Grilli, Vittorio U., 1986. "Buying and selling attacks on fixed exchange rate systems," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-2), pages 143-156, February.
  9. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-66, February.
  10. Buiter, Willem H., 1987. "Borrowing to defend the exchange rate and the timing and magnitude of speculative attacks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3-4), pages 221-239, November.
  11. Penati, Alessandro & Pennacchi, George, 1989. "Optimal portfolio choice and the collapse of a fixed-exchange rate regime," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 1-24, August.
  12. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983. "Exchange Rate Dynamics With Sluggish Prices Under Alternative Price-Adjustment Rules," NBER Working Papers 1173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Wyplosz, Charles, 1986. "Capital controls and balance of payments crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 167-179, June.
  14. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1985. "Short-Term and Long-Term Interest Rates in a Monetary Model of a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 1716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
  16. Claessens, Stijn, 1988. "Balance-of-payments crises in a perfect foresight optimizing model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 363-372.
  17. Flood, Robert P. & Hodrick, Robert J., 1986. "Real aspects of exchange rate regime choice with collapsing fixed rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3-4), pages 215-232, November.
  18. Otani, Kiyoshi, 1989. "A collapse of a fixed rate regime with a discrete realignment of the exchange rate," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 250-269, September.
  19. Alain Ize & Guillermo Ortiz, 1987. "Fiscal Rigidities, Public Debt, and Capital Flight," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(2), pages 311-332, June.
  20. Bacchetta, Philippe, 1990. "Temporary capital controls in a balance-of- payments crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 246-257, September.
  21. Harris Dellas & Alan C. Stockman, 1988. "Self-fulfillment Expectations, Speculation Attacks, and Capitol Controls," NBER Working Papers 2625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 71-83, October.
  23. Willman, Alpo, 1987. "Speculative attacks on the currency with uncertain monetary policy reactions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 75-78.
  24. Dellas, Harris & Stockman, Alan, 1993. "Self-Fulfilling Expectations, Speculative Attack, and Capital Controls," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(4), pages 721-30, November.
  25. Paul Krugman & Julio Rotemberg, 1990. "Target Zones with Limited Reserves," NBER Working Papers 3418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Andersen, Torben M & Risager, Ole, 1991. "The Role of Credibility for the Effects of a Change in the Exchange-Rate Policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 85-98, January.
  27. Blackburn, Keith, 1988. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes and exchange rate dynamics: Some further examples," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 373-385.
  28. Connolly, Michael, 1986. "The speculative attack on the peso and the real exchange rate: Argentina, 1979-1981," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1, Supple), pages S117-S130, March.
  29. Maurice Obstfeld, 1983. "Balance-of-Payments Crises and Devaluation," NBER Working Papers 1103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Connolly, Michael B & Taylor, Dean, 1984. "The Exact Timing of the Collapse of an Exchange Rate Regime and Its Impact on the Relative Price of Traded Goods," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 194-207, May.
  31. Krasker, William S., 1980. "The `peso problem' in testing the efficiency of forward exchange markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 269-276, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:91/99. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)

or (Hassan Zaidi)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.