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Testing the Credibility of the Belgian Hard Currency Policy

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  • Vincent Koen

Abstract

Interest rate differentials have been widely used to assess the degree of policy credibility. A problem with this measure, however, is that the relationship between the differential and credibility varies not only across maturities but also with the actual level of the exchange rate. The alternative approach used in this paper, based on the construction of rate-of-return bands, overcomes this difficulty. It is applied to Belgium, which in May 1990 hardened its exchange rate policy stance. Comparisons with other small, open European economies are carried out. Econometric evidence is provided supporting the claim that the announcement and active implementation of a tighter exchange rate link does make a difference.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Koen, 1991. "Testing the Credibility of the Belgian Hard Currency Policy," IMF Working Papers 91/79, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:91/79
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    Cited by:

    1. Klass H. W. Knot, 1998. "The fundamental determinants of interest rate differentials in the ERM," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 165-176, February.
    2. Rose, Andrew K. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1994. "European exchange rate credibility before the fall," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1185-1216, June.
    3. R. Sean Craig, 1994. "Who will join EMU? Impact of the Maastricht convergence criteria on economic policy choice and performance," International Finance Discussion Papers 480, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Ulf Söderström & Alexis Stenfors, 1995. "Explaining devaluation expectations in the EMS," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 63-81, Autumn.
    5. Allan Drazen & Paul R. Masson, 1994. "Credibility of Policies Versus Credibility of Policymakers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(3), pages 735-754.
    6. Elias Belessakos & Michael Papaioannou, 1996. "Simple credibility tests of the ERM bands for the pound sterling and the Italian lira," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 219-236, July.
    7. Amato, Amedeo & Tronzano, Marco, 2000. "Fiscal policy, debt management and exchange rate credibility: Lessons from the recent Italian experience," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 921-943, June.
    8. Knot, Klaas & de Haan, Jakob, 1995. "Interest rate differentials and exchange rate policies in Austria, The Netherlands, and Belgium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 363-386, May.

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