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Indicators of Fiscal Sustainability

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  • Jocelyn Horne

Abstract

This paper assesses the usefulness of summary measures of fiscal sustainability for the purpose of multilateral surveillance. An overview of the main conceptual issues is first presented. Next, an assessment is made of the strengths and weaknesses of the summary measures in the context of their recent application to industrial countries by the OECD and the Fund. The measures are shown to highlight the inadequacy of using trends in public debt ratios to assess sustainability. However, the measures and their recent application are subject to a number of caveats, in particular in relation to their sensitivity to the discount rate, time paths of government expenditures and private sector behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Jocelyn Horne, 1991. "Indicators of Fiscal Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 91/5, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:91/5
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    Cited by:

    1. Koo, Chung Mo, 2002. "Fiscal sustainability in the wake of the economic crisis in Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 659-669.
    2. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Mike, 2012. "A model-based indicator of the fiscal stance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 526-551.
    3. Stoian, Andreea, 2012. "Fiscal Sustainability of the European Welfare State: Evidence from Cumulative Excess of the Primary Balance," Working Papers 27/2012, Universidade Portucalense, Centro de Investigação em Gestão e Economia (CIGE).
    4. Alexis CRUZ-RODRÍGUEZ, 2014. "Assessing fiscal sustainability in some selected countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(6(595)), pages 7-22, June.
    5. Bhatt, Antra, 2010. "Revisiting Indicators of Public Debt Sustainability: Capital Expenditure, Growth and Public Debt in India," MPRA Paper 27422, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev & Eugene Goryunov & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2015. "Theoretical foundations of fiscal gap as a long-term fiscal sustainability indicator and its estimates for Russia," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 168P, pages 1-58.
    7. Matt Andrews, 2015. "Has Sweden Injected Realism into Public Financial Management Reforms in Partner Countries?," CID Working Papers 303, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    8. Goryunov, Yevgeniy, 2016. "Theoretical foundations, properties and interpretation of the budget gap indicators," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 2, pages 112-132, April.
    9. Richard M. Bird, 2003. "Fiscal Flows, Fiscal Balance, and Fiscal Sustainability," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0302, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    10. repec:eee:rujoec:v:1:y:2015:i:3:p:240-256 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Stoian, Andreea & Alves, Rui Henrique, 2014. "High public debt in the euro area: still a fact," MPRA Paper 63679, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Cruz-Rodriguez, Alexis, 2013. "La END, el plan nacional plurianual del sector público y la sostenibilidad fiscal en la República Dominicana
      [The Dominican National Development Strategy (END), the National Multi-Year Public Secto
      ," MPRA Paper 49376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Bodrova, Vera & Gvozdeva, Margarita & Kazakova, Maria, 2015. "Methods of Long-term Forecasting: Comparative Analysis and Foreign Experience of Applying," Published Papers 2310, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    14. Cyrus MUTUKU, 2015. "Assessing Fiscal Policy Cyclicality and Sustainability: A Fiscal Reaction Function for Kenya," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 173-191, September.
    15. Kazakova, Maria & Trunin, Pavel, 2015. "Long-Term Prognosis of Basic Demographic and Macroeconomic Indicators in Russia," Published Papers 2308, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    16. Marcel, Mario, 2001. "Balance Estructural del Gobierno Central. Metodología y Estimaciones para Chile
      [Structural Bazlance of Central Government. Methodology and estimates for Chile]
      ," MPRA Paper 43338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Francesco Mongelli, 1999. "The Effects of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) on National Fiscal Sustainability," Open Economies Review, Springer, pages 31-61.
    18. Condea Bogdan Virgil & Harangus Daniela, 2014. "Impact Of The Global Financial Crisis On Sovereign Debt In The European Union," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 719-727, July.
    19. Kazakova, Maria & Nesterova, Kristina, 2015. "Long-Term Forecast of the Main Parameters of the Budgetary System of Russia," Published Papers 2309, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

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