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Speculative Attacks


  • Pablo Emilio Guidotti
  • Guillermo Calvo


A brief survey of the literature on speculative attacks is provided. The nature and causes of balance-of-payments crises, the implications for the behavior of the current account and the real exchange rate are discussed. Also, potential areas for future research on balance-of-payments crises are suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Emilio Guidotti & Guillermo Calvo, 1991. "Speculative Attacks," IMF Working Papers 91/10, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:91/10

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    2. repec:rus:hseeco:123922 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Bayoumi, Tamim & Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2004. "Benefits and spillovers of greater competition in Europe: a macroeconomic assessment," Working Paper Series 341, European Central Bank.
    4. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
    5. P. Marcelo Oviedo & Enrique Mendoza, 2004. "Public Debt, Fiscal Solvency, and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Emerging Markets: The Tale of the Tormented Insurer," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 647, Econometric Society.
    6. Philippe D Karam & Douglas Hostland, 2005. "Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods," IMF Working Papers 05/226, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Theodore M. Barnhill & George Kopits, 2003. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity," IMF Working Papers 03/79, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Marcio Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market's Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," NBER Working Papers 10336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," NBER Chapters,in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 67-102 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Douglas Laxton & Andrew Berg & Philippe D Karam, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis—Overview," IMF Working Papers 06/80, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Dirk V Muir & Douglas Laxton & Dennis P Botman & Andrei Romanov, 2006. "A New-Open-Economy Macro Model for Fiscal Policy Evaluation," IMF Working Papers 06/45, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2004. "Monetary Sovereignty, Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: The Trilemma in the Interwar Period," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(s1), pages 75-108, June.
    2. Rafal Antczak, 2000. "Theoretical Aspects of Currency Crises," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0211, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    3. Niko Gobbin & Bruno Merlevede, 2000. "The Russian Crisis: A Debt Perspective," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 141-163.
    4. Robert Flood & Charles Kramer, 1996. "Economic models of speculative attacks and the drachma crisis of May 1994," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 591-600, March.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," CEPR Discussion Papers 1349, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Omar F. Saqib, 2002. "Interpreting Currency Crises: A Review of Theory, Evidence, and Issues," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 303, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Peltonen, Tuomas, 2006. "Are emerging market currency crises predictable? A test," Working Paper Series 571, European Central Bank.
    8. Zhen Zhu, 1997. "Dynamic Inconsistency and Exchange-Rate Target Zones: A Welfare Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 15-38.
    9. Dai, Meixing, 1998. "Les effets stabilisants de la zone-cible du taux d’inflation
      [The stabilising effects of inflation-targeting zone]
      ," MPRA Paper 13856, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2001.
    10. Marek Dabrowski, 2002. "Currency Crises in Emerging - Market Economis: Causes, Consequences and Policy Lessons," CASE Network Reports 0051, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.


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