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Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries with a Parallel Market for Foreign Exchange; A Formal Framework

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  • Pierre-Richard Agénor

Abstract

The paper develops and tests a model of a developing economy that incorporates trade and capital restrictions, illegal transactions, a parallel foreign exchange market, currency substitution features, and forward-looking rational expectations. Temporary expansionary demand policies are associated with an increase in output and prices, a fall in the stock of net foreign assets, and a depreciation of the parallel exchange rate. The speed of adjustment is inversely related to the degree of rationing in the official foreign currency market. A once-for–all devaluation of the official exchange rate has no long-term effect on the premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1990. "Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries with a Parallel Market for Foreign Exchange; A Formal Framework," IMF Working Papers 90/16, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:90/16
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    Cited by:

    1. Ozatay, Fatih, 2000. "A quarterly macroeconometric model for a highly inflationary and indebted country: Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-11, January.
    2. Subrata Ghatak & Jalal Siddiki, 2001. "The use of the ARDL approach in estimating virtual exchange rates in India," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 573-583.
    3. Kamin, Steven B., 1995. "Contractionary devaluation with black markets for foreign exchange," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 39-57, February.
    4. Alberto Giovannini & Bart Turtelboom, 1992. "Currency Substitution," NBER Working Papers 4232, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Clement Yuk Pang Wong, 1997. "Black Market Exchange Rates And Capital Mobility In Asian Economies," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 15(1), pages 21-36, January.
    6. Özdemir, K. Azim & Turner, Paul, 2008. "A Monetary Disequilibrium Model for Turkey: Investigation of a Disinflationary Fiscal Rule and its Implications for Monetary Policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 349-361.

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