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On International Integration of Emerging Sovereign Bond Markets

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  • Itai Agur
  • Melissa Chan
  • Mangal Goswami
  • Sunil Sharma

Abstract

The paper investigates the international integration of EM sovereign dollar-denominated and local-currency bond markets. Factor analysis is used to examine movements in sovereign bond yields and common sources of yield variation. The results suggest that EM dollar-denominated sovereign debt markets are highly integrated; a single common factor that is highly correlated with US and EU interest rates explains, on average, about 80 percent of the total variability in yields. EM sovereign local currency bond markets are not as internationally integrated, and three common factors explain about 74 percent of the total variability. But a factor highly correlated with US and EU interest rates still explains 63 percent of the yield variation accounted for by common factors. That said, there is some diversity among EM countries in the importance of common factors in affecting sovereign debt yields.

Suggested Citation

  • Itai Agur & Melissa Chan & Mangal Goswami & Sunil Sharma, 2018. "On International Integration of Emerging Sovereign Bond Markets," IMF Working Papers 18/18, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:18/18
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    Keywords

    Bond markets; Capital flows; Sovereign debt; Emerging markets; Globalization; United States; Euro Area; Financial crises; Economic integration; Interest rate differential; Reserve requirements; Financial markets; Financial Globalization; Safe Assets; Debt Denomination; Factor Analysis; F21; F65; G15; H63; O16; Globalization: Finance; dollar-denominated; common factor; currency debt; communality; post-crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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