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Household Credit, Global Financial Cycle, and Macroprudential Policies; Credit Register Evidence from an Emerging Country

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  • Mircea Epure
  • Irina Mihai
  • Camelia Minoiu
  • José-Luis Peydró

Abstract

We analyze the effects of macroprudential policies on local bank credit cycles and interactions with international financial conditions. For identification, we exploit the comprehensive credit register containing all bank loans to individuals in Romania, a small open economy subject to external shocks, and the period 2004-2012, which covers a full boom-bust credit cycle when a wide range of macroprudential measures were deployed. Although household leverage is known to be a key driver of financial crises, to our knowledge this is the first paper that employs a household credit register to study leverage and macroprudential policies over a full economic cycle. Our results show that tighter macroprudential conditions are associated with a significant decline in household credit, with substantially stronger effects for foreign currency (FX) loans than for local currency loans. The effects on FX loans are higher for: (i) ex-ante riskier borrowers proxied by higher debt-service-toincome ratios and (ii) banks with greater exposure to foreign funding. Moreover, tighter macroprudential policy has stronger dampening effects on FX lending when global risk appetite is high and foreign monetary policy is expansionary. Finally, quantitative effects are in general larger for borrower rather than lender macroprudential policies.

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  • Mircea Epure & Irina Mihai & Camelia Minoiu & José-Luis Peydró, 2018. "Household Credit, Global Financial Cycle, and Macroprudential Policies; Credit Register Evidence from an Emerging Country," IMF Working Papers 18/13, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:18/13
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    Keywords

    Household credit; Central banks and their policies; Spillovers; Financial cycles; Macroprudential Policy; Romania; macroprudential policies; global financial cycle; cross-border spillovers; General;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance

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