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Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies

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  • Sangyup Choi
  • Davide Furceri
  • Prakash Loungani
  • Saurabh Mishra
  • Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro

Abstract

We study the impact of fluctuations in global oil prices on domestic inflation using an unbalanced panel of 72 advanced and developing economies over the period from 1970 to 2015. We find that a 10 percent increase in global oil inflation increases, on average, domestic inflation by about 0.4 percentage point on impact, with the effect vanishing after two years and being similar between advanced and developing economies. We also find that the effect is asymmetric, with positive oil price shocks having a larger effect than negative ones. The impact of oil price shocks, however, has declined over time due in large part to a better conduct of monetary policy. We further examine the transmission channels of oil price shocks on domestic inflation during the recent decades, by making use of a monthly dataset from 2000 to 2015. The results suggest that the share of transport in the CPI basket and energy subsidies are the most robust factors in explaining cross-country variations in the effects of oil price shocks during the this period.

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  • Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Prakash Loungani & Saurabh Mishra & Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, 2017. "Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies," IMF Working Papers 17/196, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:17/196
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    2. López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Pourroy, Marc, 2019. "Inflation target and (a)symmetries in the oil price pass-through to inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 860-875.
    3. Feldkircher, Martin & Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Tondl, Gabriele, 2019. "Global Factors Driving Inflation and Monetary Policy: A Global VAR Assessment," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 289, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    4. Hipòlit Torró, 2019. "The Response of European Energy Prices to ECB Monetary Policy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(2), pages 1-9.
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    12. Alan Finkelstein Shapiro & Andres Gonzalez Gomez & Jessica Roldan-Pena & Victoria Nuguer, 2018. "Price Dynamics and the Financing Structure of Firms in Emerging Economies," 2018 Meeting Papers 339, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    14. Sun, Qingru & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Guo, Sui & Wang, Ze & Liu, Siyao & Wen, Shaobo, 2019. "Effects of crude oil shocks on the PPI system based on variance decomposition network analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    15. Husaini, Dzul Hadzwan & Puah, Chin-Hong & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2019. "Energy subsidy and oil price fluctuation, and price behavior in Malaysia:A time series analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1000-1008.

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    Keywords

    Oil prices; Commodity price fluctuations; Inflation; Monetary policy; Commodity price shocks; Developed countries; Developing countries; Cross-country analysis; oil price shocks; inflation pass-through; local projections; oil price shocks; Forecasting and Simulation; Energy and the Macroeconomy;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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