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The Macroeconomic Effects of Trade Tariffs; Revisiting the Lerner Symmetry Result

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  • Jesper Lindé
  • Andrea Pescatori

Abstract

We study the robustness of the Lerner symmetry result in an open economy New Keynesian model with price rigidities. While the Lerner symmetry result of no real effects of a combined import tariff and export subsidy holds up approximately for a number of alternative assumptions, we obtain quantitatively important long-term deviations under complete international asset markets. Direct pass-through of tariffs and subsidies to prices and slow exchange rate adjustment can also generate significant short-term deviations from Lerner. Finally, we quantify the macroeconomic costs of a trade war and find that they can be substantial, with permanently lower income and trade volumes. However, a fully symmetric retaliation to a unilaterally imposed border adjustment tax can prevent any real or nominal effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesper Lindé & Andrea Pescatori, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Trade Tariffs; Revisiting the Lerner Symmetry Result," IMF Working Papers 17/151, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:17/151
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    1. repec:nbr:nberch:14069 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Omar Barbiero & Emmanuel Farhi & Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki, 2018. "The Macroeconomics of Border Taxes," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2018, volume 33 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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