IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/17-110.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Can They Do It All? Fiscal Space in Low-Income Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Anja Baum
  • Andrew Hodge
  • Aiko Mineshima
  • Marialuz Moreno Badia
  • Rene Tapsoba

Abstract

According to U.N. estimates, low-income countries will have to increase their annual public spending by up to 30 percent of GDP to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), raising the question of whether they can do it all. This paper develops a new metric of fiscal space in low-income countries that accounts for macroeconomic uncertainty, allowing us to assess whether those spending needs can be accommodated. Illustrative simulations based on this methodology imply that, even under benign conditions, the fiscal space available in lowincome countries is likely insufficient to undertake the spending needed to achieve the SDGs. Improving public investment efficiency and domestic revenue mobilization can somewhat narrow the gap but it will require major efforts relative to recent trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Anja Baum & Andrew Hodge & Aiko Mineshima & Marialuz Moreno Badia & Rene Tapsoba, 2017. "Can They Do It All? Fiscal Space in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 17/110, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:17/110
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=44889
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nina T Budina & Tidiane Kinda & Andrea Schaechter & Anke Weber, 2012. "Fiscal Rules at a Glance; Country Details from a New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 12/273, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & Shu-Chun S Yang & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2013. "Public Investment in Resource-Abundant Developing Countries," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 92-129, April.
    3. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Ostry, Jonathan D., 2008. "International evidence on fiscal solvency: Is fiscal policy "responsible"?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 1081-1093, September.
    4. Atish R. Ghosh & Jun I. Kim & Enrique G. Mendoza & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2013. "Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 4-30, February.
    5. Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(3), pages 1-3.
    6. Elva Bova & Marta Ruiz-Arranz & Frederik G Toscani & H. Elif Ture, 2016. "The Fiscal Costs of Contingent Liabilities; A New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 16/14, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    8. Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S. & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2018. "Government spending effects in low-income countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 201-219.
    9. Heller, Peter S. & Katz, Menachem & Debrun, Xavier & Thomas, Theo & Koranchelian, Taline & Adenauer, Isabell, 2006. "Making Fiscal Space Happen! Managing Fiscal Policy in a World of Scaled-Up Aid," WIDER Working Paper Series 125, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Allen Schick, 2009. "Budgeting for fiscal space," OECD Journal on Budgeting, OECD Publishing, vol. 9(2), pages 1-18.
    11. Lino Briguglio & Gordon Cordina & Nadia Farrugia & Stephanie Vella, 2009. "Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 229-247.
    12. Oral Williams & Olumuyiwa S Adedeji, 2007. "Fiscal Reaction Functions in the CFA Zone; An Analytical Perspective," IMF Working Papers 07/232, International Monetary Fund.
    13. repec:oup:jafrec:v:26:y:2017:i:2:p:256-293.e14. is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Jarmila Botev & Jean-Marc Fournier & Annabelle Mourougane, 2016. "A Re-assessment of Fiscal Space in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1352, OECD Publishing.
    15. Gupta, Sanjeev & Kangur, Alvar & Papageorgiou, Chris & Wane, Abdoul, 2014. "Efficiency-Adjusted Public Capital and Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 164-178.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:deveco:v:133:y:2018:i:c:p:201-219 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S. & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2018. "Government spending effects in low-income countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 201-219.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:17/110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Hassan Zaidi to update the entry or send us the correct email address. General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.