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China's Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility; Is World Growth Losing Out?

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Listed:
  • Paul Cashin
  • Kamiar Mohaddes
  • Mehdi Raissi

Abstract

China's GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already weak global economic recovery. To quantify the global macroeconomic consequences of these shocks, we employ a GVAR model estimated for 26 countries/regions over the period 1981Q1 to 2013Q1. Our results indicate that (i) a one percent permanent negative GDP shock in China (equivalent to a one-off one percent growth shock) could have significant global macroeconomic repercussions, with world growth reducing by 0.23 percentage points in the short-run; and (ii) a surge in global financial market volatility could translate into a fall in world economic growth of around 0.29 percentage points, but it could also have negative short-run impacts on global equity markets, oil prices and long-term interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Cashin & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2016. "China's Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility; Is World Growth Losing Out?," IMF Working Papers 16/63, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/63
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2015. "The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy," IMF Working Papers 15/259, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2017. "Oil prices and the global economy: Is it different this time around?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 315-325.
    3. Allan Dizioli & Benjamin L Hunt & Wojciech Maliszewski, 2016. "Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy," IMF Working Papers 16/212, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger & Irina Dubova, 2019. "On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 122-142, January.
    5. repec:wsi:jicepx:v:08:y:2017:i:01:n:s1793993317500016 is not listed on IDEAS
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    10. Jochen Andritzky & Bernhard Kassner & Wolf Heinrich Reuter, 2019. "Propagation of changes in demand through international trade: A case study of China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 1259-1285, April.
    11. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "Fair weather or foul? The macroeconomic effects of El Niño," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 37-54.
    12. Allan Dizioli & Jaime Guajardo & Vladimir Klyuev & Rui Mano & Mehdi Raissi, 2016. "Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies," IMF Working Papers 16/170, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Dieppe, Alistair & Gilhooly, Robert & Han, Jenny & Korhonen, Iikka & Lodge, David, 2018. "The transition of China to sustainable growth – implications for the global economy and the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 206, European Central Bank.
    14. Davide Furceri & João Tovar Jalles & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2017. "China Spillovers: New Evidence from Time-Varying Estimates," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 413-429, July.
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    17. Serkan Arslanalp & Wei Liao & Shi Piao & Dulani Seneviratne, 2016. "China’s Growing Influence on Asian Financial Markets," IMF Working Papers 16/173, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Gee Hee Hong & Jaewoo Lee & Wei Liao & Dulani Seneviratne, 2016. "China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown," IMF Working Papers 16/105, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Renée Fry-McKibbin & Rodrigo da Silva Souza, 2018. "Chinese resource demand or commodity price shocks: Macroeconomic effects for an emerging market economy," CAMA Working Papers 2018-45, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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    24. Dieppe, Alistair & Georgiadis, Georgios & Ricci, Martino & Van Robays, Ine & van Roye, Björn, 2018. "ECB-Global: Introducing the ECB's global macroeconomic model for spillover analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 78-98.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asia and Pacific; China’s slowdown; global financial market volatility; international business cycle; Global VAR; volatility; market volatility; financial market; trade; global financial market; Time-Series Models; International Business Cycles; Asia including Middle East;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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