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Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom


  • Aqib Aslam
  • Samya Beidas-Strom
  • Rudolfs Bems
  • Oya Celasun
  • Sinem Kılıç Çelik
  • Zsoka Koczan


Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has slowed considerably among countries that are net exporters of commodities. A critical question for policy makers in these economies is whether commodity windfalls influence potential output. Our analysis suggests that both actual and potential output move together with commodity terms of trade, but that actual output comoves twice as strongly as potential output. The weak commodity price outlook is estimated to subtract 1 to 2¼ percentage points from actual output growth annually on average during 2015-17. The forecast drag on potential output is about one-third of that for actual output.

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  • Aqib Aslam & Samya Beidas-Strom & Rudolfs Bems & Oya Celasun & Sinem Kılıç Çelik & Zsoka Koczan, 2016. "Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom," IMF Working Papers 16/27, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/27

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    1. repec:eee:jpolmo:v:39:y:2017:i:4:p:680-698 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Emilio Ocampo, 2016. "Measuring the “Tailwind” in an Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Argentina," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 600, Universidad del CEMA.
    3. Patrick Blagrave & Marika Santoro, 2016. "Estimating Potential Output in Chile; A Multivariate Filter for Mining and Non-Mining Sectors," IMF Working Papers 16/201, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Miguel Angel Saldarriaga, 2017. "Credit Booms in Commodity Exporters," Working Papers 2017-98, Peruvian Economic Association.

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    Natural resources; Potential output; Terms of trade; Resource Boom; commodity; output; trade; price; prices; Global Commodity Crises; Resource Booms; All Countries;

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