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To Bet or Not to Bet; Copper Price Uncertainty and Investment in Chile

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  • Fabio Comelli
  • Esther Perez Ruiz

Abstract

A strand of research documents Chile’s copper dependence hence significant exposure to terms of trade shocks. Copper prices’ sharp decline and forecast uncertainty since the end of the commodity super-cycle has rekindled the debate on Chile’s adjustment capacity to external shocks. Following Malz (2014), this paper builds a time-varying measure of copper price uncertainty using options contracts. VAR analysis shows that the investment response to an uncertainty shock of average magnitude in the sample is strong and persistent: the cumulative fall in investment from trend at a one-year horizon ranges 2–5.8 percentage points; and it takes between 1½ and 2 years for investment to return to its trend level. Empirical ranges depend on alternative definitions for investment, uncertainty, and options’ maturing time.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Comelli & Esther Perez Ruiz, 2016. "To Bet or Not to Bet; Copper Price Uncertainty and Investment in Chile," IMF Working Papers 16/218, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/218
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gourio, François & Siemer, Michael & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2013. "International risk cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 471-484.
    2. José De Gregorio & Felipe Labbé, 2011. "Copper, the Real Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 640, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Malz, Allan M., 2014. "Simple and reliable way to compute option-based risk-neutral distributions," Staff Reports 677, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. repec:eee:inecon:v:108:y:2017:i:c:p:351-367 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Kenneth J. Arrow & Anthony C. Fisher, 1974. "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 88(2), pages 312-319.
    6. Carrière-Swallow, Yan & Céspedes, Luis Felipe, 2013. "The impact of uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 316-325.
    7. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    8. repec:ijc:ijcjou:y:2018:q:1:a:5 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Jorge Fornero & Markus Kirchner, 2018. "Learning about Commodity Cycles and Saving-Investment Dynamics in a Commodity-Exporting Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 205-262, March.
    10. Kulish, Mariano & Rees, Daniel M., 2017. "Unprecedented changes in the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 351-367.
    11. Fernando Avalos & Ramon Moreno, 2013. "Hedging in derivatives markets: the experience of Chile," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    12. Dixit, Avinash K. & Pindyck, Robert S., 1995. "The new option view of investment," Working papers 3794-95., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    13. José Díaz & Rolf Lüders & Gert Wagner, 2007. "Economía Chilena 1810-2000. Producto Total y Sectorial. Una Nueva Mirada," Documentos de Trabajo 315, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:ijc:ijcjou:y:2018:q:1:a:5 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Jorge Fornero & Markus Kirchner, 2018. "Learning about Commodity Cycles and Saving-Investment Dynamics in a Commodity-Exporting Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 205-262, March.

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