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U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization and Global Interest Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Caceres
  • Yan Carriere-Swallow
  • Ishak Demir
  • Bertrand Gruss

Abstract

As the Federal Reserve continues to normalize its monetary policy, this paper studies the impact of U.S. interest rates on rates in other countries. We find a modest but nontrivial pass-through from U.S. to domestic short-term interest rates on average. We show that, to a large extent, this comovement reflects synchronized business cycles. However, there is important heterogeneity across countries, and we find evidence of limited monetary autonomy in some cases. The co-movement of longer term interest rates is larger and more pervasive. We distinguish between U.S. interest rate movements that surprise markets versus those that are anticipated, and find that most countries receive greater spillovers from the former. We also distinguish between movements in the U.S. term premium and the expected path of risk-free rates, concluding that countries respond differently to these shocks. Finally, we explore the determinants of monetary autonomy and find strong evidence for the role of exchange rate flexibility, capital account openness, but also for other factors, such as dollarization of financial system liabilities, and the credibility of fiscal and monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Caceres & Yan Carriere-Swallow & Ishak Demir & Bertrand Gruss, 2016. "U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization and Global Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 16/195, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/195
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    Cited by:

    1. Aaron Mehrotra & Richhild Moessner & Chang Shu, 2019. "Interest Rate Spillovers from the United States: Expectations, Term Premia and Macro-Financial Vulnerabilities," CESifo Working Paper Series 7896, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Belke, Ansgar & Dubova, Irina & Volz, Ulrich, 2017. "Bond Yield Spillovers from Major Advanced Economies to Emerging Asia," GLO Discussion Paper Series 41, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. N. Hande SEVGİ, 2017. "Normalization of Monetary Policy After Global Crisis: What is Normalization?," Fiscaoeconomia, Tubitak Ulakbim JournalPark (Dergipark), issue 3.
    4. Fida Hussain & Asif Mahmood, 2017. "Predicting Output Growth and Inflation in Pakistan: The Role of Yield Spread," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 13, pages 53-76.
    5. Akhtar, Shumi & Akhtar, Farida & Jahromi, Maria & John, Kose, 2017. "Impact of interest rate surprises on Islamic and conventional stocks and bonds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 218-231.
    6. M. Yu. GOLOVNIN, 2018. "External effects of US monetary policy," Outlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law, Center for Crisis Society Studies.
    7. Soohyon Kim, 2018. "Determinants of Capital Flows in the Korean Bond Market," Working Papers 2018-44, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.

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    Keywords

    Monetary policy; United States; Interest rates; Asset prices; Spillovers; Central bank autonomy; Monetary policy; monetary conditions; autonomy; global financial cycle.;

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