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Products and Provinces; A Disaggregated Panel Analysis of Canada’s Manufacturing Exports

Listed author(s):
  • Itai Agur

The waning of the commodity boom places renewed emphasis on manufacturing as an engine for Canadian growth. However, Canadian manufacturing exports have been relatively stagnant since 2000. While the exchange rate depreciation over the past two years has energized export growth, the response has not been as strong as would have been expected given the size of the depreciation. More fundamental issues appear to be impeding the growth of the Canadian manufacturing sector. This study analyzes the structural factors behind export competitiveness by using unique Canadian data on exports, which are disaggregated both by province and by product. Matching exports to similarly disaggregated data on R&D, the capital stock and other supply-side variables, we find that these variables significantly affect export growth, beyond the impact of the exchange rate. In particular, investment in R&D, capital infrastructure and vocational training improves innovation and production capacity. These results are robust to a factor-augmented approach that controls for multicollinearity.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 16/193.

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Length: 33
Date of creation: 26 Sep 2016
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/193
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  1. Gabriel Bruneau & Kevin Moran, 2017. "Exchange rate fluctuations and labour market adjustments in Canadian manufacturing industries," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(1), pages 72-93, February.
  2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
  3. Tamim Bayoumi & Martin Mühleisen, 2006. "Energy, the Exchange Rate, and the Economy; Macroeconomic Benefits of Canada’s Oil Sands Production," IMF Working Papers 06/70, International Monetary Fund.
  4. André Binette & Daniel de Munnik & Julie Melanson, 2015. "An Update - Canadian Non-Energy Exports: Past Performance and Future Prospects," Discussion Papers 15-10, Bank of Canada.
  5. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
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  7. Daniel Trefler, 2004. "The Long and Short of the Canada-U. S. Free Trade Agreement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 870-895, September.
  8. Michael Anderson & Stephen Smith, 1999. "Canadian Provinces in World Trade: Engagement and Detachment," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 22-38, February.
  9. John Baldwin & Wulong Gu, 2003. "Export-market participation and productivity performance in Canadian manufacturing," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 634-657, August.
  10. Stephen Tokarick, 2010. "A Method for Calculating Export Supply and Import Demand Elasticities," IMF Working Papers 10/180, International Monetary Fund.
  11. John F. Helliwell & Lawrence L. Schembri, 2005. "Borders, Common Currencies, Trade, and Welfare: What Can We Learn from the Evidence?," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2005(Spring), pages 19-33.
  12. Farrukh Suvankulov, 2015. "Revisiting National Border Effects in Foreign Trade in Goods of Canadian Provinces," Staff Working Papers 15-28, Bank of Canada.
  13. John Baldwin & Beiling Yan, 2012. "Export Market Dynamics and Plant-Level Productivity: Impact of Tariff Reductions and Exchange-Rate Cycles," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(3), pages 831-855, 09.
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