IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/16-139.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

6½ Decades of Global Trade and Income; “New Normal” or “Back to Normal” after GTC and GFC?

Author

Listed:
  • Sanjay Kalra

Abstract

Global merchandise trade expanded rapidly over the last 6½ decades and its relationship with global income has seen ebbs and flows. This paper examines the shifts in this relationship using time series data over 1950-2014 and situates it in the current and longer term context. The conjunctural context comes from, among other things, the “great trade collapse” (GTC) and the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2009, and developments since then. The longer term context comes from the relative role of “globalization” and “technology” shocks in accounting for the short and long run variance of global exports and income. The paper estimates trade and income elasticities using ADL models taking account of structural breaks, and impulse response functions from structural VARs. The estimated SVAR model provides a lens to ask whether global trade and income are in a “new normal’ or only “back to (an old) normal” after the GTC and GFC.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanjay Kalra, 2016. "6½ Decades of Global Trade and Income; “New Normal” or “Back to Normal” after GTC and GFC?," IMF Working Papers 16/139, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/139
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=44089
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. -, 2016. "U.S. Economic Outlook: Quarterly developments," Oficina de la CEPAL en Washington (Estudios e Investigaciones) 40295, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    2. Carlo Altomonte & Filippo Di Mauro & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Armando Rungi & Vincent Vicard, 2012. "Global Value Chains During the Great Trade Collapse: A Bullwhip Effect?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1131, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2009. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," Working Papers 592, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    4. Abdul Abiad & Prachi Mishra & Petia Topalova, 2014. "How Does Trade Evolve in the Aftermath of Financial Crises?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(2), pages 213-247, June.
    5. Bown, Chad P. & Crowley, Meredith A., 2013. "Import protection, business cycles, and exchange rates: Evidence from the Great Recession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 50-64.
    6. Loginov D. & Trunin Pavel & Knobel Alexander & Firanchuk Alexander & Goryunov Evgeny & Kiyutsevskaya Anna & Larionova M. & Sakharov A. & Shelepov A. & Avraamova A., 2016. "Online Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook," Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook. Trends and Challenges of Socio-Economic Development (In Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 29, pages 1-26, June.
    7. Romain A Duval & Kevin C Cheng & Kum Hwa Oh & Richa Saraf & Dulani Seneviratne, 2014. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization; A Reappraisal with Focus on Asia," IMF Working Papers 14/52, International Monetary Fund.
    8. -, 2016. "U.S. Economic Outlook: Quarterly developments," Oficina de la CEPAL en Washington (Estudios e Investigaciones) 40851, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    9. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2013. "The Great Trade Collapse," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 375-400, May.
    10. Escaith, Hubert & Lindenberg, Nannette & Miroudot, Sébastien, 2010. "International supply chains and trade elasticity in times of global crisis," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2010-08, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    11. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2010. "Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(2), pages 295-326, December.
    12. Richard Baldwin, 2011. "Trade And Industrialisation After Globalisation's 2nd Unbundling: How Building And Joining A Supply Chain Are Different And Why It Matters," NBER Working Papers 17716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Irwin, Douglas A., 2002. "Long-run trends in world trade and income," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 89-100, March.
    14. Andrei A Levchenko & Logan T Lewis & Linda L Tesar, 2010. "The Collapse of International Trade during the 2008–09 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(2), pages 214-253, December.
    15. Gene M. Grossman & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2008. "Trading Tasks: A Simple Theory of Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1978-1997, December.
    16. Matthieu Bussière & Giovanni Callegari & Fabio Ghironi & Giulia Sestieri & Norihiko Yamano, 2013. "Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-2009," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 118-151, July.
    17. Ines Buono & Filippo Vergara Caffarelli, 2013. "Trade elasticity and vertical specialisation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 924, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/139. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Hassan Zaidi to update the entry or send us the correct email address. General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.