IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/16-129.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Outside the Band; Depreciation and Inflation Dynamics in Chile

Author

Listed:
  • Esther Perez Ruiz

Abstract

This paper examines inflation dynamics in Chile during the last peso depreciation episode 2013-15. The evidence is for substantial pass-through effects to inflation, given the large and persistent depreciation movement. Widespread indexation practices in non-traded goods markets are found to amplify the inflation response to the depreciation, while the role of wage indexation is less relevant to the inflation dynamics. Overall, inflation would have remained within the central bank’s target band absent the peso depreciation. The analysis also shows that tightening monetary policy in response to a depreciation shock can be costly in terms of output: the response of activity to rates is found to be strong, while the transmission from activity to inflation is found to be weak. Simulations under uncertainty about the extent of the pass-through also suggest that monetary policy can play a countercyclical role in the face of depreciation shocks at a moderate inflationary cost, as long as inflation expectations remain anchored.

Suggested Citation

  • Esther Perez Ruiz, 2016. "Outside the Band; Depreciation and Inflation Dynamics in Chile," IMF Working Papers 16/129, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/129
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=44059
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Elke Hahn & Marcelo Sánchez, 2007. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 84-102, November.
    2. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
    3. repec:hrv:faseco:30780147 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Stanley Fischer, 1988. "Real Balances, the Exchange Rate, and Indexation: Real Variables in Disinflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(1), pages 27-49.
    5. Roberto Perrelli & Shaun K. Roache, 2014. "Time-Varying Neutral Interest Rate—The Case of Brazil," IMF Working Papers 14/84, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Santiago Justel & Andrés Sansone, 2015. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices: VAR Evidence for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 747, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Hahn, Elke & Sánchez, Marcelo, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through in emerging markets," Working Paper Series 739, European Central Bank.
    8. Elías Albagli & Alberto Naudon & Rodrigo Vergara, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics in LATAM: A Comparison with Global Trends and Implications for Monetary Policy," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 58, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Gita Gopinath, 2015. "The International Price System," NBER Working Papers 21646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Hahn, Elke, 2003. "Pass-through of external shocks to euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 243, European Central Bank.
    11. Marcus Cobb & Luis Opazo, 2008. "Microeconomic Evidence of Nominal Wage Rigidity in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 496, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Michal Andrle & Patrick Blagrave & Pedro Espaillat & Keiko Honjo & Benjamin L Hunt & Mika Kortelainen & René Lalonde & Douglas Laxton & Eleonara Mavroeidi & Dirk V Muir & Susanna Mursula & Stephen Snu, 2015. "The Flexible System of Global Models – FSGM," IMF Working Papers 15/64, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Pincheira Brown, Pablo & Rubio Hurtado, Hernán, 2015. "The low predictive power of simple Phillips curves in Chile," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Blagrave & Marika Santoro, 2016. "Estimating Potential Output in Chile; A Multivariate Filter for Mining and Non-Mining Sectors," IMF Working Papers 16/201, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Gabriela Contreras & Francisco Pinto, 2016. "Traspaso de tipo de cambio nominal a inflación desagregada en Chile," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 19(2), pages 154-170, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.