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Depreciations without Exports?; Global Value Chains and the Exchange Rate Elasticity of Exports

Author

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  • Swarnali A Hannan
  • Maximiliano Appendino
  • Michele Ruta

Abstract

This paper analyzes how the exchange rate elasticity of exports has changed over time and across countries and sectors, and how the formation of Global Value Chains (GVCs) has affected this relationship. Using a panel framework covering 46 countries over the period 1996-2012, we first find evidence that the elasticity of manufacturing export volumes to the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) has decreased over time. We then examine whether the formation of supply chains has affected this elasticity using different measures of GVC integration. Intuitively, as countries are more integrated in global production processes, a currency depreciation only improves competitiveness of a fraction of the value of final good exports. In line with this intuition, we find evidence that the rise of GVC participation explains on average 40 percent of the fall in the elasticity and that corrections of the REER for GVC participation do not present the same decreasing pattern in elasticity.

Suggested Citation

  • Swarnali A Hannan & Maximiliano Appendino & Michele Ruta, 2015. "Depreciations without Exports?; Global Value Chains and the Exchange Rate Elasticity of Exports," IMF Working Papers 15/400, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/400
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2014. "Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 459-494, February.
    2. Pol Antras & Davin Chor & Thibault Fally & Russell Hillberry, 2012. "Measuring the Upstreamness of Production and Trade Flows," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 412-416, May.
    3. Cristina Constantinescu & Aaditya Mattoo & Michele Ruta, 2015. "The Global Trade Slowdown; Cyclical or Structural?," IMF Working Papers 15/6, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Romain A Duval & Kevin C Cheng & Kum Hwa Oh & Richa Saraf & Dulani Seneviratne, 2014. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization; A Reappraisal with Focus on Asia," IMF Working Papers 14/52, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Eichengreen, Barry & Tong, Hui, 2015. "Effects of renminbi appreciation on foreign firms: The role of processing exports," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 146-157.
    6. Nikhil Patel & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2014. "Global Value Chains and Effective Exchange Rates at the Country-Sector Level," NBER Working Papers 20236, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. repec:aea:aejmac:v:9:y:2017:i:4:p:45-90 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Robert C. Johnson, 2014. "Five Facts about Value-Added Exports and Implications for Macroeconomics and Trade Research," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 119-142, Spring.
    9. Virginia Di Nino & Barry Eichengreen & Massimo Sbracia, 2011. "Real Exchange Rates, Trade, and Growth: Italy 1861-2011," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 10, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson, 2017. "Demand for Value Added and Value-Added Exchange Rates," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 45-90, October.
    11. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson, 2012. "Value-Added Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 18498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michele, 2013. "The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a literature review," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 577-605, July.
    13. Tamim Bayoumi & Mika Saito & Jarkko Turunen, 2013. "Measuring Competitiveness; Trade in Goods or Tasks?," IMF Working Papers 13/100, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2016. "Uncertainty over Exchange Rates and Exports: Evidence from dispersion of expectations as a measure of uncertainty," Discussion papers 16010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. repec:bpj:bejmac:v:17:y:2017:i:1:p:24:n:2 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Sandile Hlatshwayo & Magnus Saxegaard, 2016. "The Consequences of Policy Uncertainty; Disconnects and Dilutions in the South African Real Effective Exchange Rate-Export Relationship," IMF Working Papers 16/113, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Jorge A. Fornero & Miguel A. Fuentes & Andrés Gatty, 2017. "How do manufacturing exports react to RER and foreign demand? The Chilean case," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 810, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. López-Martín Bernabé, 2019. "Firm Export Dynamics and the Exchange Rate: A Quantitative Exploration," Working Papers 2019-05, Banco de México.
    6. Ahmed Swarnali & Appendino Maximiliano & Ruta Michele, 2017. "Global value chains and the exchange rate elasticity of exports," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-24, January.
    7. Elif C Arbatli & Gee Hee Hong, 2016. "Singapore’s Export Elasticities; A Disaggregated Look into the Role of Global Value Chains and Economic Complexity," IMF Working Papers 16/52, International Monetary Fund.
    8. repec:rnp:ecopol:ep1734 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Firanchuk, Alexander, 2018. "Imported Intermediate Goods and Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Export Prices," EconStor Preprints 182400, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

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