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Investment in the Euro Area; Why Has It Been Weak?

Author

Listed:
  • Bergljot B Barkbu
  • Pelin Berkmen
  • Pavel Lukyantsau
  • Sergejs Saksonovs
  • Hanni Schoelermann

Abstract

Investment across the euro area remains below its pre-crisis level. Its performance has been weaker than in most previous recessions and financial crises. This paper shows that a part of this weakness can be explained by output dynamics, particularly before the European sovereign debt crisis. The rest is explained by a high cost of capital, financial constraints, corporate leverage, and uncertainty. There is a considerable cross country heterogeneity in terms of both investment dymanics and its determinants. Based on the findings of this paper, investment is expected to pick up as the recovery strengthens and uncertainty declines, but persistent financial fragmentation and high corporate leverage in some countries will likely continue to weigh on investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Bergljot B Barkbu & Pelin Berkmen & Pavel Lukyantsau & Sergejs Saksonovs & Hanni Schoelermann, 2015. "Investment in the Euro Area; Why Has It Been Weak?," IMF Working Papers 15/32, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/32
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Talavera, Oleksandr, 2010. "On the investment sensitivity of debt under uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 25-27, January.
    2. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1994. "Small Sample Bias and Adjustment Costs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 52-58, February.
    3. Oliner, Stephen & Rudebusch, Glenn & Sichel, Daniel, 1995. "New and Old Models of Business Investment: A Comparison of Forecasting Performance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 806-826, August.
    4. Álvaro Pina & Ildeberta Abreu, 2012. "Portugal: Rebalancing the Economy and Returning to Growth Through Job Creation and Better Capital Allocation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 994, OECD Publishing.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Balázs Égert, 2018. "Regulation, Institutions and Aggregate Investment: New Evidence from OECD Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 415-449, April.
    2. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.
    3. Sebastian Ion Ceptureanu, 2015. "Young Smes Insolvency.Theoretical Considerations And Policy Actions," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 120-126.
    4. Andrea Giusto & Talan B. Işcan, 2016. "Market Power and the Aggregate Saving Rate," Working Papers daleconwp2016-02, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    5. Manuel Buchholz & Lena Tonzer & J. Berner, 2016. "Asymmetric Investment Responses to Firm-specific Uncertainty," IWH Discussion Papers 7, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
    6. repec:erc:cypepr:v:12:y:2018:i:1:p:3-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Canofari, Paolo & Messori, Marcello, 2016. "Exit Risks and Contagion in the Euro Area," SEP Working Papers 2015/11, LUISS School of European Political Economy.
    8. repec:zbw:iwhdps:7-16 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:taf:applec:v:50:y:2018:i:34-35:p:3787-3797 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Maxime Leboeuf & Robert Fay, 2016. "What Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment?," Discussion Papers 16-5, Bank of Canada.
    11. Huidan Huidan Lin, 2016. "Risks of Stagnation in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 16/9, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Buchholz, Manuel & Tonzer, Lena & Berner, Julian, 2016. "Asymmetric Investment Responses to Firm-specific Uncertainty," IWH Discussion Papers 7/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    13. Fabio Busetti & Claire Giordano & Giordano Zevi, 2016. "The Drivers of Italy’s Investment Slump During the Double Recession," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 2(2), pages 143-165, July.
    14. Yinqiu Lu & Sophia Chen, 2018. "Does Balance Sheet Strength Drive the Investment Cycle? Evidence from Pre- and Post-Crisis Cyprus," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 12(1), pages 3-27, June.
    15. Bańbura, Marta & Albani, Maria & Ambrocio, Gene & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & de Winter, Jasper & Gavura, Miroslav & Giordano, Claire & Júlio, Paulo & Le Roux, Julien & Lozej, Matija & Malthe-Thag, 2018. "Business investment in EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.
    16. Martin Ademmer & Nils Jannsen, 2018. "Post-crisis business investment in the euro area and the role of monetary policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(34-35), pages 3787-3797, July.
    17. Holtemöller, Oliver, 2016. "Sovereign Stress, Banking Stress, and Corporate Financing Costs in the Euro Area," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145820, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. repec:eee:ecmode:v:69:y:2018:i:c:p:58-66 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro Area; Corporate debt; Cost of capital; Credit; Cross country analysis; Econometric models; Investment; credit rationing; capital; lending;

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