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Drivers of Peru's Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate; Is the Nuevo Sol a Commodity Currency?

Listed author(s):
  • Melesse Tashu
Registered author(s):

    This paper tests the hypothesis of ‘commodity currency’ on the nuevo sol and, more generally, identifies the drivers of Peru’s equilibrium real exchange rate using a cointegration analysis. The results show that export commodity prices do not have a statistically significant impact on Peru’s real effective exchange rate, suggesting that the nuevo sol is not a commodity currency. The paper provides empirical evidence that large profit repatriation and foreign exchange intervention have effectivelly insulated Peru’s real exchange rate from the impact of commodity price shocks. Peru’s equilibrium real exchange rate is found to be driven mostly by productivity and government consumption.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 15/26.

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    Length: 28
    Date of creation: 11 Feb 2015
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/26
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    1. Cashin, Paul & Cespedes, Luis F. & Sahay, Ratna, 2004. "Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 239-268, October.
    2. Marco Vega & Adrian Armas & Paul Castillo, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and Quantitative Tightening: Effects of Reserve Requirements in Peru," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Fall 2014), pages 133-175, June.
    3. Engel, Charles, 2000. "Long-run PPP may not hold after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 243-273, August.
    4. Luca Antonio Ricci & Gian Maria Milesi‐Ferretti & Jaewoo Lee, 2013. "Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A Cross‐Country Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 845-865, August.
    5. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    6. Elena Loukoianova & Plamen K Iossifov, 2007. "Estimation of a Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model for Ghana," IMF Working Papers 07/155, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    8. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584-584.
    9. Astorga, Pablo, 2012. "Mean reversion in long-horizon real exchange rates: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1529-1550.
    10. Bodart, V. & Candelon, B. & Carpantier, J.-F., 2012. "Real exchanges rates in commodity producing countries: A reappraisal," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1482-1502.
    11. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    12. repec:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i::p:845-865 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Aizenman, Joshua & Edwards, Sebastian & Riera-Crichton, Daniel, 2012. "Adjustment patterns to commodity terms of trade shocks: The role of exchange rate and international reserves policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 1990-2016.
    14. Renzo Rossini & Adrián Armas & Zenón Quispe, 2014. "Global policy spillovers and Peru’s monetary policy: inflation targeting, foreign exchange intervention and reserve requirements," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets, volume 78, pages 241-264 Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Marco Bonomo & Ricardo Brito & Bruno Martins, 2015. "Macroeconomic and Financial Consequences of the Post-Crisis Government-Driven Credit Expansion in Brazil," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6827, Inter-American Development Bank.
    16. Steven T Phillips & Luis Catão & Luca A Ricci & Rudolfs Bems & Mitali Das & Julian Di Giovanni & Filiz D Unsal & Marola Castillo & Jungjin Lee & Jair Rodriguez & Mauricio Vargas, 2013. "The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology," IMF Working Papers 13/272, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    18. Gustavo Adler & Nicolas E Magud, 2013. "Four Decades of Terms-of-Trade Booms; Saving-Investment Patterns and a New Metric of Income Windfall," IMF Working Papers 13/103, International Monetary Fund.
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