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Spillovers from China onto Sub-Saharan Africa; Insights from the Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM)

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Listed:
  • Derek Anderson
  • Jorge I Canales Kriljenko
  • Paulo Drummond
  • Pedro Espaillat
  • Dirk V Muir

Abstract

What is the impact of economic spillovers from China on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)? This is an increasingly important question because of China’s growing economic role as a partner of SSA countriesfor both trade and the buildup of infrastructure in the region. The impact of spillovers from China has been an open question because of the challenge to use an internally consistent framework with solid economic foundations that accounts for both the direct impact China may have on individual countries in SSA through a variety of channels (trade, investment, financial) as well as the impact on the region through the global economy (economic activity and commodity prices). This paper explores those channels of transmission and provides illustrative order of magnitude for the short- and medium-term economic impact by using AFRMOD, a module of the Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM), a multicountry general equilibrium model developed at the IMF. Three alternative scenarios are considered: first, lower potential output in China that is originally misperceived as a temporary cyclical slowdown; second, structural reforms in China that aim to increase potential output; and third, a relocation of low-end manufacturing to sub-Saharan Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Derek Anderson & Jorge I Canales Kriljenko & Paulo Drummond & Pedro Espaillat & Dirk V Muir, 2015. "Spillovers from China onto Sub-Saharan Africa; Insights from the Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM)," IMF Working Papers 15/221, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/221
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    Cited by:

    1. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "China's slowdown and global financial market volatility: Is world growth losing out?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 164-175.
    2. Zhai, Fan & Morgan, Peter, 2016. "Impact of the People’s Republic of China’s Growth Slowdown on Emerging Asia: A General Equilibrium Analysis," ADBI Working Papers 560, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    3. Andritzky, Jochen & Kassner, Bernhard & Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2016. "Propagation of changes in demand through international trade: Case study China," Working Papers 10/2016, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    4. Allan Dizioli & Jaime Guajardo & Vladimir Klyuev & Rui Mano & Mehdi Raissi, 2016. "Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies," IMF Working Papers 16/170, International Monetary Fund.
    5. repec:eee:wdevel:v:102:y:2018:i:c:p:243-261 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Fan Zhai & Peter Morgan, 2016. "Impact of the People’s Republic of China’s Growth Slowdown on Emerging Asia: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers id:10509, eSocialSciences.
    7. repec:wbk:wbpubs:28422 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Alexei P Kireyev & Andrei Leonidov, 2016. "China’s Imports Slowdown; Spillovers, Spillins, and Spillbacks," IMF Working Papers 16/51, International Monetary Fund.

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