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Innovation, Deregulation, and the Life Cycle of a Financial Service Industry

Author

Listed:
  • Fumiko Hayashi
  • Grace B Li
  • Zhu Wang

Abstract

This paper examines innovation, deregulation, and firm dynamics over the life cycle of the U.S. ATM and debit card industry. In doing so, we construct a dynamic equilibrium model to study how a major product innovation (introducing the new debit card function) interacted with banking deregulation drove the industry shakeout. Calibrating the model to a novel dataset on ATM network entry, exit, size, and product offerings shows that our theory fits the quantitative pattern of the industry well. The model also allows us to conduct counterfactual analyses to evaluate the respective roles that innovation and deregulation played in the industry evolution.

Suggested Citation

  • Fumiko Hayashi & Grace B Li & Zhu Wang, 2015. "Innovation, Deregulation, and the Life Cycle of a Financial Service Industry," IMF Working Papers 15/192, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/192
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Darren Filson, 2001. "The Nature and Effects of Technological Change over the Industry Life Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(2), pages 460-494, July.
    2. Stijn Ferrari & Frank Verboven & Hans Degryse, 2010. "Investment and Usage of New Technologies: Evidence from a Shared ATM Network," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 1046-1079, June.
    3. Mussa, Michael L, 1977. "External and Internal Adjustment Costs and the Theory of Aggregate and Firm Investment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 44(174), pages 163-178, May.
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    6. Steven Klepper & Kenneth L. Simons, 2000. "The Making of an Oligopoly: Firm Survival and Technological Change in the Evolution of the U.S. Tire Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(4), pages 728-760, August.
    7. Mcandrews James J., 2003. "Automated Teller Machine Network Pricing - A Review of the Literature," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-13, June.
    8. Fumiko Hayashi & Richard J. Sullivan & Stuart E. Weiner, 2006. "A guide to the ATM and debit card industry - 2006 update," Monograph, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, number 2006agttaadci2, July.
    9. Filson, Darren & Gretz, Richard T., 2004. "Strategic innovation and technology adoption in an evolving industry," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 89-121, January.
    10. April Franco & Darren Filson, 2000. "Knowledge diffusion through employee mobility," Staff Report 272, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    11. Edward Simpson Prescott & Hubert P. Janicki, 2006. "Changes in the size distribution of U.S. banks: 1960-2005," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 92(Fall), pages 291-316.
    12. April Mitchell Franco & Darren Filson, 2006. "Spin‐outs: knowledge diffusion through employee mobility," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 37(4), pages 841-860, December.
    13. Randall S. Kroszner & Philip E. Strahan, 1999. "What Drives Deregulation? Economics and Politics of the Relaxation of Bank Branching Restrictions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1437-1467.
    14. Gautam Gowrisankaran & John Krainer, 2011. "Entry and pricing in a differentiated products industry: evidence from the ATM market," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 42(1), pages 1-22, March.
    15. repec:rje:randje:v:37:y:2006:i:4:p:841-860 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Luís Cabral, 2012. "Technology uncertainty, sunk costs, and industry shakeout," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 539-552, June.
    17. Zhu Wang, 2007. "Technological Innovation and Market Turbulence: The Dot-com Experience," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(1), pages 78-105, January.
    18. Adam J. Fein, 1998. "Understanding evolutionary processes in non-manufacturing industries: Empirical insights from the shakeout in pharmaceutical wholesaling," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 231-270.
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    20. Zhu Wang, 2008. "Income Distribution, Market Size and the Evolution of Industry," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 542-565, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ester Faia & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 2017. "Global Banking: Risk Taking and Competition," CEP Discussion Papers dp1471, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Robert L. Hetzel, 2014. "Should Greece Remain in the Eurozone?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 3Q, pages 241-278.
    3. Faia, Ester & Ottaviano, Gianmarco, 2017. "Global Banking: Endogenous Competition and Risk Taking," CEPR Discussion Papers 11940, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Robert L. Hetzel, 2015. "A Comparison of Greece and Germany: Lessons for the Eurozone?," Working Paper 15-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, revised 15 Apr 2015.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Industrial structure; Financial services industry; Equilibrium. Econometric models; United States; Technological innovation; Innovation; Deregulation; Industry Dynamics; Shakeout; networks; atm; at; technology; it; General;

    JEL classification:

    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General

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