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From Systemic Banking Crises to Fiscal Costs; Risk Factors

Author

Listed:
  • David Amaglobeli
  • Nicolas End
  • Mariusz Jarmuzek
  • Geremia Palomba

Abstract

This paper examines the risk factors associated with fiscal costs of systemic banking crises using cross-country data. We differentiate between immediate direct fiscal costs of government intervention (e.g., recapitalization and asset purchases) and overall fiscal costs of banking crises as proxied by changes in the public debt-to-GDP ratio. We find that both direct and overall fiscal costs of banking crises are high when countries enter the crisis with large banking sectors that rely on external funding, have leveraged non-financial private sectors, and use guarantees on bank liabilities during the crisis. The better quality of banking supervision and the higher coverage of deposit insurance help, however, alleviate the direct fiscal costs. We also identify a possible policy trade-off: costly short-term interventions are not necessarily associated with larger increases in public debt, supporting the thesis that immediate intervention may be actually cost-effective over time.

Suggested Citation

  • David Amaglobeli & Nicolas End & Mariusz Jarmuzek & Geremia Palomba, 2015. "From Systemic Banking Crises to Fiscal Costs; Risk Factors," IMF Working Papers 15/166, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/166
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Honohan, Patrick & Klingebiel, Daniela, 2003. "The fiscal cost implications of an accommodating approach to banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1539-1560, August.
    2. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sorensen, Bent & Yesiltas, Sevcan, 2012. "Leverage across firms, banks, and countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 284-298.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    4. Martin Cihak & Sonia Munoz & Ryan Scuzzarella, 2012. "The Bright and the Dark Side of Cross-Border Banking Linkages," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(3), pages 200-225, July.
    5. Mauro, Paolo & Romeu, Rafael & Binder, Ariel & Zaman, Asad, 2015. "A modern history of fiscal prudence and profligacy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 55-70.
    6. repec:ifs:fistud:v:38:y:2017:i::p:179-217 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Julio Escolano & Anna Shabunina & Jaejoon Woo, 2017. "The Puzzle of Persistently Negative Interest‐Rate–Growth Differentials: Financial Repression or Income Catch‐Up?," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 38, pages 179-217, June.
    8. Smets, Frank & Collard, Fabrice & Boissay, Frédéric, 2013. "Booms and systemic banking crises," Working Paper Series 1514, European Central Bank.
    9. Edward J Frydl, 1999. "The Length and Cost of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 99/30, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2013. "Banking crises: An equal opportunity menace," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4557-4573.
    11. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Gandrud & Mark Hallerberg, 2015. "What is a Financial Crisis? Efficiently Measuring Real-Time Perceptions of Financial Market Stress with an Application to Financial Crisis Budget Cycles," CESifo Working Paper Series 5632, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Serkan Arslanalp & Yin Liao, 2015. "Contingent Liabilities from Banks; How to Track Them?," IMF Working Papers 15/255, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Schuknecht, Ludger, 2019. "Fiscal-financial vulnerabilities," SAFE White Paper Series 62, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    4. repec:fru:finjrn:170406:p:71-84 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Jan Kakes & Rob Nijskens, 2018. "Size of the banking sector: implications for financial stability," DNB Occasional Studies 1606, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    6. Elva Bova & Marta Ruiz-Arranz & Frederik G Toscani & H. Elif Ture, 2016. "The Fiscal Costs of Contingent Liabilities; A New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 16/14, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Kerola, Eeva & Weill, Laurent, 2019. "Does experience of banking crises affect trust in banks?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking crisis; Financial crisis; Contingent liabilities; fiscal costs; banking; banking crises; debt; public debt; bank; General;

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