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Learning, Monetary Policy and Asset Prices

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  • Marco Airaudo
  • Salvatore Nisticò
  • Luis-Felipe Zanna

Abstract

We explore the stability properties of interest rate rules granting an explicit response to stock prices in a New-Keynesian DSGE model populated by Blanchard-Yaari non-Ricardian households. The constant turnover between long-time stock holders and asset-poor newcomers generates a financial wealth channel where the wedge between current and expected future aggregate consumption is affected by the market value of financial wealth, making stock prices non-redundant for the business cycle. We find that if the financial wealth channel is sufficiently strong, responding to stock prices enlarges the policy space for which the rational expectations equilibrium is both determinate and learnable (in the E-stability sense of Evans and Honkapohja, 2001). In particular, the Taylor principle ceases to be necessary and also mildly passive policy responses to inflation lead to determinacy and E-stability. Our results appear to be more prominent in economies characterized by a lower elasticity of substitution across differentiated products and/or more rigid labor markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Airaudo & Salvatore Nisticò & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2015. "Learning, Monetary Policy and Asset Prices," IMF Working Papers 15/16, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/16
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    Cited by:

    1. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2010. "Tracking U.S. inflation expectations with domestic and global indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1340-1356, November.
    2. André, Marine Charlotte & Dai, Meixing, 2017. "Is central bank conservatism desirable under learning?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 281-296.
    3. Salvatore Nistico', 2011. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Stock-Prices Dynamics in a Non-Ricardian DSGE Model," Working Papers CASMEF 1107, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    4. Milani, Fabio, 2017. "Learning about the interdependence between the macroeconomy and the stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 223-242.
    5. Adebayo Adebiyi & Charles N. O. Mordi, 2012. "A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (Dsge) Model Of Oil Price Shocks And Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Domestic Inflation In Nigeria," EcoMod2012 3715, EcoMod.
    6. Benjamin Carton, 2012. "Monetary-Policy Tradeoff in Overlapping Generations DSGE Models," DEM Working Papers Series 028, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    7. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in a DSGE model for the U.S," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1700-1731, September.
    8. Gilles Dufrénot & Anwar Khayat, 2014. "Monetary Policy Switching in the Euro Area and Multiple Equilibria: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers halshs-00973504, HAL.
    9. Kitney, Paul, 2018. "Financial factors and monetary policy: Determinacy and learnability of equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 194-207.
    10. Ghazanchyan, Manuk, 2014. "Unraveling the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Sri Lanka," MPRA Paper 59444, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Nisticò, Salvatore, 2012. "Monetary policy and stock-price dynamics in a DSGE framework," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 126-146.
    12. Tiziana Assenza & Michele Berardi & Domenico Delli Gatti, 2015. "Was Bernanke Right? Targeting Asset Prices May : not: be a Good Idea After All," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: William A. Barnett & Fredj Jawadi (ed.), Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons, volume 24, pages 451-496, Emerald Publishing Ltd.
    13. Vicente da Gama Machado, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Asset Prices and Adaptive Learning," Working Papers Series 274, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    14. Assenza, T. & Berardi, M. & Delli Gatti, D., 2009. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy: A New View of the Cost Channel," CeNDEF Working Papers 09-17, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    15. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in a DSGE model for the U.S," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1700-1731, September.
    16. Eurilton Araújo, 2016. "Monetary Policy Credibility and the Comovement between Stock Returns and Inflation," Working Papers Series 449, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    17. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Milton Yago & Alaa M. Soliman & Junjie Wu, 2016. "Financial stability, wealth effects and optimal macroeconomic policy combination in the United Kingdom: A new-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1136098-113, December.
    18. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Alaa M. Soliman, 2014. "Aspects of Macroeconomic Policy Combinations and Their Effects on Financial Markets," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 19(1), pages 95-118, March.
    19. Roberta CARDANI, "undated". "Optimal Monetary Policy with Wealth Effect and Cost Channel," EcoMod2008 23800021, EcoMod.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rate policy; Monetary policy; Household consumption; General equilibrium models; Stock prices; Learning; Expectational Stability; Interest Rate Rules; Multiple Equilibria; Determinacy; stock; equilibrium; economy; markets; General;

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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