IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/15-148.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What Slice of the Pie? The Corporate Bond Market Boom in Emerging Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Diana B Ayala Pena
  • Milan Nedeljkovic
  • Christian Saborowski

Abstract

This paper studies the determinants of shifts in debt composition among EM non-financial corporates. We show that institutions and macro fundamentals create an enabling environment for bond market development. During the recent boom episode, however, global cyclical factors accounted for most of the variation of bond shares in total corporate debt. The sensitivity to global factors appears to vary with relative bond market size—which we interpret to be associated with liquidity and easy entry and exit—rather than local fundamentals. Foreign bank linkages help explain why bond markets increasingly substituted for banks in channeling liquidity to EMs. Our results highlight the risk of capital flow reversal in EMs that benefited from the upturn in the global financial cycle mostly due to their liquid markets rather than strong fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Diana B Ayala Pena & Milan Nedeljkovic & Christian Saborowski, 2015. "What Slice of the Pie? The Corporate Bond Market Boom in Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 15/148, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/148
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=43060
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arteta, Carlos & Hale, Galina, 2008. "Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-69, January.
    2. Stefan Avdjiev & Michael Chui & Hyun Song Shin, 2014. "Non-financial corporations from emerging market economies and capital flows," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    3. Lo Duca, Marco & Nicoletti, Giulio & Vidal Martínez, Ariadna, 2016. "Global corporate bond issuance: What role for US quantitative easing?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 114-150.
    4. Johnson, Shane A., 1997. "An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Corporate Debt Ownership Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(01), pages 47-69, March.
    5. Djankov, Simeon & McLiesh, Caralee & Shleifer, Andrei, 2007. "Private credit in 129 countries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 299-329, May.
    6. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," NBER Working Papers 17555, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Bruno, Valentina & Shim, Ilhyock & Shin, Hyun Song, 2017. "Comparative assessment of macroprudential policies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 183-202.
    8. Barry Eichengreen & Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, 2006. "Why doesn’t Asia have bigger bond markets?," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Asian bond markets: issues and prospects, volume 30, pages 40-77 Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    10. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1997. "Financial Intermediation, Loanable Funds, and The Real Sector," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(3), pages 663-691.
    11. Eduardo Borensztein & Kevin Cowan & Barry Eichengreen & Ugo Panizza (ed.), 2008. "Bond Markets in Latin America: On the Verge of a Big Bang?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262026325, March.
    12. Galina Hale, 2007. "Bonds or Loans? the Effect of Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(516), pages 196-215, January.
    13. Paul Mizen & Serafeim Tsoukas, 2014. "What promotes greater use of the corporate bond market? A study of the issuance behaviour of firms in Asia," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(1), pages 227-253, January.
    14. Philip Turner, 2014. "The global long-term interest rate, financial risks and policy choices in EMEs," BIS Working Papers 441, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Robert N. McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Vladyslav Sushko, 2015. "Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 187-229.
    16. Buch, Claudia M. & Eickmeier, Sandra & Prieto, Esteban, 2014. "In search for yield? Survey-based evidence on bank risk taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 12-30.
    17. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    18. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    19. Tatiana Didier & Ross Levine & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2014. "Capital Market Financing, Firm Growth, Firm Size Distribution," NBER Working Papers 20336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Alan Sule & Honoré Bo E. & Hu Luojia & Leth-Petersen Søren, 2014. "Estimation of Panel Data Regression Models with Two-Sided Censoring or Truncation," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-20, January.
    21. Papaioannou, Elias, 2009. "What drives international financial flows? Politics, institutions and other determinants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 269-281, March.
    22. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Erik Feyen & Ross Levine, 2013. "The Evolving Importance of Banks and Securities Markets," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 27(3), pages 476-490.
    23. George Allayannis & Gregory W. Brown & Leora F. Klapper, 2003. "Capital Structure and Financial Risk: Evidence from Foreign Debt Use in East Asia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2667-2710, December.
    24. Linda S Goldberg, 2009. "Understanding Banking Sector Globalization," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 171-197, April.
    25. Bremus, Franziska & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2015. "Drivers of structural change in cross-border banking since the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 32-59.
    26. Andrés Fernández & Michael W Klein & Alessandro Rebucci & Martin Schindler & Martín Uribe, 2016. "Capital Control Measures: A New Dataset," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 548-574, August.
    27. Kristin J. Forbes & Francis E. Warnock, 2012. "Capital Debt -and Equity-Led Capital Flow Episodes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 676, Central Bank of Chile.
    28. Francis, Johanna L. & Aykut, Dilek & Tereanu, Eugen, 2014. "The cost of private debt over the credit cycle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 146-181.
    29. Levine, Ross, 2002. "Bank-Based or Market-Based Financial Systems: Which Is Better?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 398-428, October.
    30. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 2002. "Funding growth in bank-based and market-based financial systems: evidence from firm-level data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 337-363, September.
    31. Jason Abrevaya & Shu Shen, 2014. "Estimation Of Censored Panel‐Data Models With Slope Heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 523-548, June.
    32. Caballero, Julian & Panizza, Ugo & Powell, Andrew, 2015. "The second wave of global liquidity: Why are firms acting like financial intermediaries?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10926, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    33. Hale, Galina & Santos, João A.C., 2008. "The decision to first enter the public bond market: The role of firm reputation, funding choices, and bank relationships," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1928-1940, September.
    34. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2013. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 110-138.
    35. Hale, Galina & Jones, Peter & Spiegel, Mark M., 2014. "The Rise in Home Currency Issuance," Working Paper Series 2014-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, revised 04 May 2016.
    36. Kristin J. Forbes & Francis E. Warnock, 2014. "Debt-and Equity-Led Capital Flow Episodes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.), Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 9, pages 291-322 Central Bank of Chile.
    37. Allen, Franklin & Gu, Xian & Kowalewski, Oskar, 2012. "Financial crisis, structure and reform," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2960-2973.
    38. Bilias, Yannis & Chen, Songnian & Ying, Zhiliang, 2000. "Simple resampling methods for censored regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 373-386, December.
    39. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2013. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007 to 2009," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 159-214.
    40. DellʼAriccia, Giovanni & Laeven, Luc & Marquez, Robert, 2014. "Real interest rates, leverage, and bank risk-taking," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 65-99.
    41. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S Goldberg, 2011. "Global Banks and International Shock Transmission: Evidence from the Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 41-76, April.
    42. Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 78-98, March.
    43. Andrés Fernández & Michael W Klein & Alessandro Rebucci & Martin Schindler & Martín Uribe, 2016. "Capital Control Measures: A New Dataset," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 548-574, August.
    44. Eugenio M Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Damien Puy, 2015. "Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets; Why Knowing Your Lender Matters More Than Fundamentals," IMF Working Papers 15/127, International Monetary Fund.
    45. Becker, Bo & Ivashina, Victoria, 2014. "Cyclicality of credit supply: Firm level evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 76-93.
    46. Gozzi, Juan Carlos & Levine, Ross & Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2015. "How firms use corporate bond markets under financial globalization," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 532-551.
    47. Denis, David J. & Mihov, Vassil T., 2003. "The choice among bank debt, non-bank private debt, and public debt: evidence from new corporate borrowings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 3-28, October.
    48. Welch, Ivo, 1997. "Why Is Bank Debt Senior? A Theory of Asymmetry and Claim Priority Based on Influence Costs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 1203-1236.
    49. Morris Goldstein & Philip Turner, 2004. "Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 373.
    50. Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2002. "Information sharing, lending and defaults: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(10), pages 2017-2045, October.
    51. Shin, Hyun Song, 2013. "The second phase of global liquidity and its impact on emerging economies," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov, pages 1-10.
    52. Robert F. Dittmar, 2008. "Do Sovereign Bonds Benefit Corporate Bonds in Emerging Markets?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(5), pages 1983-2014, September.
    53. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2012. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007-9," NBER Working Papers 18335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    54. repec:oup:rfinst:v:30:y:2017:i:3:p:703-749. is not listed on IDEAS
    55. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    56. John D. Burger & Rajeswari Sengupta & Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2015. "US investment in global bonds: as the Fed pushes, some EMEs pull," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(84), pages 729-766.
    57. Ramey, Valerie A., 1992. "The source of fluctuations in money : Evidence from trade credit," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 171-193, November.
    58. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(2), pages 535-564.
    59. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2017. "Global Dollar Credit and Carry Trades: A Firm-Level Analysis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(3), pages 703-749.
    60. Antonio F. Galvao & Carlos Lamarche & Luiz Renato Lima, 2013. "Estimation of Censored Quantile Regression for Panel Data With Fixed Effects," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 108(503), pages 1075-1089, September.
    61. Rajan, Raghuram & Winton, Andrew, 1995. " Covenants and Collateral as Incentives to Monitor," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1113-1146, September.
    62. Houston, Joel & James, Christopher, 1996. " Bank Information Monopolies and the Mix of Private and Public Debt Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1863-1889, December.
    63. John Hawkins, 2002. "Bond markets and banks in emerging economies," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The development of bond markets in emerging economies, volume 11, pages 42-48 Bank for International Settlements.
    64. Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Ooi, Yao Hua & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2012. "Time series momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 228-250.
    65. Sudip Datta & Mai Iskandar-Datta & Ajay Patel, 2000. "Some Evidence on the Uniqueness of Initial Public Debt Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 715-743, April.
    66. Antzoulatos, A. A., 2000. "On the determinants and resilience of bond flows to LDCs, 1990-1995," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 399-418, June.
    67. Hong H. & Chernozhukov V., 2002. "Three-Step Censored Quantile Regression and Extramarital Affairs," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 872-882, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Javier Bianchi & Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2012. "International Reserves and Rollover Risk," NBER Working Papers 18628, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Alberto Fuertes & Jose Maria Serena, 2016. "Insights from matched firm-bond level data: market of issuance and credit quality," IFC Bulletins chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Combining micro and macro data for financial stability analysis, volume 41 Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Michael Chui & Emese Kuruc & Philip Turner, 2016. "A new dimension to currency mismatches in the emerging markets - non-financial companies," BIS Working Papers 550, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Alberto Fuertes & José María Serena, 2016. "How firms borrow in international bond markets: securities regulation and market segmentation," Working Papers 1603, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    5. Snehal S Herwadkar, 2017. "Corporate leverage in EMEs: did the global financial crisis change the determinants?," BIS Working Papers 681, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Corporate sector; Capital flows; Bond markets; Emerging markets; Corporate debt; Econometric models; International financial markets; bond; markets; debt; market; General; General; General;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/148. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.