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Global Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Markets

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  • Christian H Ebeke
  • Annette J Kyobe

Abstract

Foreign holdings of emerging markets (EMs) government bonds have increased substantially over the last decade. While foreign participation in local-currency sovereign bond markets provides an additional source of financing and reduces sovereign yields, it raises concerns about increased sensitivity of yields to shifts in market sentiment. The analysis in this paper suggests that foreign participation and an undiversified investor base transmit global financial shocks to local-currency sovereign bond markets by increasing yield volatility and, beyond a certain threshold, amplify these spillovers. These estimates are robust to a range of econometric techniques including panel smooth threshold regression.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian H Ebeke & Annette J Kyobe, 2015. "Global Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Markets," IMF Working Papers 15/141, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/141
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Yang, Yukai, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 11 Oct 2017.
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    3. Combes, Jean-Louis & Ebeke, Christian, 2011. "Remittances and Household Consumption Instability in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 1076-1089, July.
    4. Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2009. "International financial remoteness and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 250-257, July.
    5. Serkan Arslanalp & Takahiro Tsuda, 2014. "Tracking Global Demand for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt," IMF Working Papers 14/39, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Masten, Arjana Brezigar & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Masten, Igor, 2008. "Non-linear growth effects of financial development: Does financial integration matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 295-313, March.
    7. Christian H Ebeke & Yinqiu Lu, 2014. "Emerging Market Local Currency Bond Yields and Foreign Holdings in the Post-Lehman Period - a Fortune or Misfortune?," IMF Working Papers 14/29, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Shanaka J Peiris, 2010. "Foreign Participation in Emerging Markets’ Local Currency Bond Markets," IMF Working Papers 10/88, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Dalia S Hakura & Ralph Chami & Peter J Montiel, 2009. "Remittances; An Automatic Output Stabilizer?," IMF Working Papers 09/91, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sebastián García-Andrade, 2019. "Efectos del rebalanceo de los índices de J.P. Morgan en 2014 sobre los rendimientos de los TES en moneda local," Borradores de Economia 1094, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Ken Miyajima, 2019. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Pass-Through to Inflation in South Africa," IMF Working Papers 19/277, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Vargas-Herrera, Hernando & Cardozo, Pamela & Romero, Jose Vicente & Murcia, Andrés, 2020. "Effects of foreign participation in the colombian local public debt market on domestic financial conditions," Working papers 44, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    4. Nkrumah, Kwabena Meneabe, 2015. "US Domestic Money, Output, Inflation and Unemployment," MPRA Paper 68095, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Elisa Van Waeyenberge & Hannah Bargawi, 2016. "Financing Economic Development. Theoretical Debates and Empirical Trends," Working papers wpaper139, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    6. Gadanecz, Blaise & Miyajima, Ken & Shu, Chang, 2018. "Emerging market local currency sovereign bond yields: The role of exchange rate risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 371-401.
    7. Konopczak, Karolina & Konopczak, Michał, 2017. "Impact of International capital flows on emerging markets’ sovereign risk premium – demand vs. vulnerability effect," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 239-245.
    8. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2016. "Global financial conditions and asset markets: Evidence from fragile emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 208-220.
    9. López-Espinosa, Germán & Moreno, Antonio & Rubia, Antonio & Valderrama, Laura, 2017. "Sovereign tail risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 174-188.
    10. Luca A Ricci & Wei Shi, 2016. "Trilemma or Dilemma; Inspecting the Heterogeneous Response of Local Currency Interest Rates to Foreign Rates," IMF Working Papers 16/75, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Konopczak, Michal, 2015. "Government debt holdings of non-residents – an analysis of the impact on selected emerging economies’ sovereign risk," MPRA Paper 68597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Agur, Itai & Chan, Melissa & Goswami, Mangal & Sharma, Sunil, 2019. "On international integration of emerging sovereign bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 347-363.

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