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Lower for Longer; Neutral Rates in the United States

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  • Andrea Pescatori
  • Jarkko Turunen

Abstract

We use a semi structural model to estimate neutral rates in the United States. Our Bayesian estimation incorporates prior information on the output gap and potential output (based on a production function approach) and accounts for unconventional monetary policies at the ZLB by using estimates of “shadow” policy rates. We find that our approach provides more plausible results than standard maximum likelihood estimates for the unobserved variables in the model. Results show a significant trend decline in the neutral real rate over time, driven only in part by a decline in potential growth whereas other factors (including excess global savings) matter. Neutral rates likely turned negative during the Global Financial Crisis and are expected to increase only gradually looking forward.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Pescatori & Jarkko Turunen, 2015. "Lower for Longer; Neutral Rates in the United States," IMF Working Papers 15/135, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/135
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Duarte, Fernando M. & Rosa, Carlo, 2015. "The equity risk premium: a review of models," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 2, pages 39-57.
    2. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
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    4. Krippner, Leo, 2013. "Measuring the stance of monetary policy in zero lower bound environments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 135-138.
    5. Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2005. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 395-413, December.
    6. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    7. Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Feng Zhu, 2014. "A shadow policy rate to calibrate US monetary policy at the zero lower bound," BIS Working Papers 452, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. John C Williams, 2015. "The Decline in the Natural Rate of Interest," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 50(2), pages 57-60, April.
    9. James D. Hamilton & Ethan S. Harris & Jan Hatzius & Kenneth D. West, 2016. "The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present, and Future," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 660-707, November.
    10. Robert Barsky & Alejandro Justiniano & Leonardo Melosi, 2014. "The Natural Rate of Interest and Its Usefulness for Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 37-43, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    2. Wynne, Mark A. & Zhang, Ren, 2017. "Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest in an Open Economy," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 316, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Mexico; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 16/360, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2016. "Real Interest Rates, Imbalances and the Curse of Regional Safe Asset Providers at the Zero Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 11503, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Ravi Balakrishnan & Stefan Laseen & Andrea Pescatori, 2016. "U.S. Dollar Dynamics; How Important Are Policy Divergence and FX Risk Premiums?," IMF Working Papers 16/125, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Wynne, Mark A. & Zhang, Ren, 2017. "Measuring the World Natural Rate of Interest," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 315, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 01 Jun 2017.
    7. repec:pal:imfecr:v:65:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1057_s41308-016-0023-z is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2016. "Capital accumulation and the dynamic of secular stagnation," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-17, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; United States; Neutral interest rate; output; interest; output gap; interest rates; General; Monetary Policy (Targets; Instruments; and Effects);

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