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Avoiding Dark Corners; A Robust Monetary Policy Framework for the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Ali Alichi
  • Kevin Clinton
  • Charles Freedman
  • Ondra Kamenik
  • Michel Juillard
  • Douglas Laxton
  • Jarkko Turunen
  • Hou Wang

Abstract

The Fed has taken several steps towards strengthening its monetary framework over the past several years. Those steps have supported the Fed’s efforts to stimulate the economy through forward guidance despite being constrained by having policy rates at zero. We show that an optimal control approach to monetary policy, which includes the publication of a baseline forecast and a description of the uncertainties around that outlook, combined with an improvement in the Fed’s communications toolkit, could further enhance the effectiveness of Fed policy. In the current conjuncture, such a risk management approach to monetary policy would result in both a later liftoff of policy rates and a modest, but planned, overshooting of inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Alichi & Kevin Clinton & Charles Freedman & Ondra Kamenik & Michel Juillard & Douglas Laxton & Jarkko Turunen & Hou Wang, 2015. "Avoiding Dark Corners; A Robust Monetary Policy Framework for the United States," IMF Working Papers 15/134, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/134
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ali Alichi & Jaromir Benes & Joshua Felman & Irene Feng & Charles Freedman & Douglas Laxton & Evan C Tanner & David Vavra & Hou Wang, 2015. "Frontiers of Monetary Policymaking; Adding the Exchange Rate as a Tool to Combat Deflationary Risks in the Czech Republic," IMF Working Papers 15/74, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    3. Noah Williams & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 108, Society for Computational Economics.
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    6. Refet S Gürkaynak & Andrew Levin & Eric Swanson, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the U.S., UK, and Sweden," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1208-1242, December.
    7. Kevin Clinton & Charles Freedman & Michel Juillard & Ondrej Kamenik & Douglas Laxton & Hou Wang, 2015. "Inflation-Forecast Targeting; Applying the Principle of Transparency," IMF Working Papers 15/132, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Charles Evans & Jonas Fisher & Francois Gourio & Spencer Krane, 2015. "Risk Management for Monetary Policy Near the Zero Lower Bound," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 141-219.
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    1. repec:kap:policy:v:50:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11077-016-9273-x is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Kevin Clinton & Charles Freedman & Michel Juillard & Ondrej Kamenik & Douglas Laxton & Hou Wang, 2015. "Inflation-Forecast Targeting; Applying the Principle of Transparency," IMF Working Papers 15/132, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Elif C Arbatli & Dennis P Botman & Kevin Clinton & Pietro Cova & Vitor Gaspar & Zoltan Jakab & Douglas Laxton & Constant A Lonkeng Ngouana & Joannes Mongardini & Hou Wang, 2016. "Reflating Japan; Time to Get Unconventional?," IMF Working Papers 16/157, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Narayana Kocherlakota, 2016. "Rules versus Discretion: A Reconsideration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 1-55.
    5. repec:bin:bpeajo:v:47:y:2016:i:2016-02:p:1-55 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Japan; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 16/268, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Maurice Obstfeld & Kevin Clinton & Ondra Kamenik & Douglas Laxton & Yulia Ustyugova & Hou Wang, 2016. "How to Improve Inflation Targeting in Canada," IMF Working Papers 16/192, International Monetary Fund.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Thailand; 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand," IMF Staff Country Reports 16/139, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central banks and their policies; Monetary policy; Inflation targeting; United States; Optimal Control; inflation; interest; interest rate; central bank; General;

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