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Inflation and Public Debt Reversals in the G7 Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Bernardin Akitoby
  • Takuji Komatsuzaki
  • Ariel J Binder

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of low or high inflation on the public debt-to-GDP ratio in the G-7 countries. Our simulations suggest that if inflation were to fall to zero for five years, the average net debt-to-GDP ratio would increase by about 5 percentage points over the next five years. In contrast, raising inflation to 6 percent for the next five years would reduce the average net debt-to-GDP ratio by about 11 percentage points under the full Fisher effect and about 14 percentage points under the partial Fisher effect. Thus higher inflation could help reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio somewhat in advanced economies. However, it could hardly solve the debt problem on its own and would raise significant challenges and risks. First of all, it may be difficult to create higher inflation, as evidenced by Japan’s experience in the last few decades. In addition, un-anchoring of inflation expectations could increase long-term real interest rates, distort resource allocation, reduce economic growth, and hurt the lower–income households.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernardin Akitoby & Takuji Komatsuzaki & Ariel J Binder, 2014. "Inflation and Public Debt Reversals in the G7 Countries," IMF Working Papers 14/96, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/96
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. George J. Hall & Thomas J. Sargent, 2011. "Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-WWII US Government Debt/GDP Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 192-214, July.
    2. S. M. Ali Abbas & Bernardin Akitoby & Jochen R. Andritzky & Helge Berger & Takuji Komatsuzaki & Justin Tyson, 2013. "Dealing with High Debt in an Era of Low Growth," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 13/7, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia1, 2015. "The liquidation of government debt," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 291-333.
    4. Cochrane, John H., 2011. "Understanding policy in the great recession: Some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 2-30, January.
    5. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    6. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2011. "Using inflation to erode the US public debt," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 524-541.
    7. Darby, Michael R, 1975. "The Financial and Tax Effects of Monetary Policy on Interest Rates," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(2), pages 266-276, June.
    8. Michael U. Krause & Stéphane Moyen, 2016. "Public Debt and Changing Inflation Targets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 142-176, October.
    9. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number feld83-1, April.
    10. Robert Mundell, 1963. "Inflation and Real Interest," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 280-280.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:macchp:v2-2305 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2016. "The Fiscal Consequences of Deflation: Evidence from the Golden Age of Globalization," Working Papers Department of Economics 2016/23, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. Nicolas End & Sampawende J Tapsoba & G. Terrier & Renaud Duplay, 2015. "Deflation and Public Finances; Evidence from the Historical Records," IMF Working Papers 15/176, International Monetary Fund.

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