Inflation and Public Debt Reversals in the G7 Countries
This paper investigates the impact of low or high inflation on the public debt-to-GDP ratio in the G-7 countries. Our simulations suggest that if inflation were to fall to zero for five years, the average net debt-to-GDP ratio would increase by about 5 percentage points over the next five years. In contrast, raising inflation to 6 percent for the next five years would reduce the average net debt-to-GDP ratio by about 11 percentage points under the full Fisher effect and about 14 percentage points under the partial Fisher effect. Thus higher inflation could help reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio somewhat in advanced economies. However, it could hardly solve the debt problem on its own and would raise significant challenges and risks. First of all, it may be difficult to create higher inflation, as evidenced by Japanâ€™s experience in the last few decades. In addition, un-anchoring of inflation expectations could increase long-term real interest rates, distort resource allocation, reduce economic growth, and hurt the lowerâ€“income households.
|Date of creation:||10 Jun 2014|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- George J. Hall & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010.
"Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-WWII U.S. Government Debt/GDP Dynamics,"
NBER Working Papers
15702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- George J. Hall & Thomas J. Sargent, 2011. "Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-WWII US Government Debt/GDP Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 192-214, July.
- George J. Hall & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Interest rate risk and other determinants of post WWII U.S. government debt/GDP dynamics," Working Papers 01, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
- Thomas J. Sargent & George J. Hall, 2010. "Interest rate risk and other determinants of post WWII U.S. government debt/GDP dynamics," 2010 Meeting Papers 208, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia, 2011.
"The Liquidation of Government Debt,"
BIS Working Papers
363, Bank for International Settlements.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia, 2011. "The Liquidation of Government Debt," NBER Working Papers 16893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carmen Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia, 2015. "The Liquidation of Government Debt," IMF Working Papers 15/7, .
- Carmen M. & M. Belen Sbrancia, 2011. "The Liquidation of Government Debt," Working Paper Series WP11-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010.
"Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, 09.
- John H. Cochrane, 2010.
"Understanding Policy in the Great Recession: Some Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic,"
NBER Working Papers
16087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cochrane, John H., 2011. "Understanding policy in the great recession: Some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 2-30, January.
- Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number feld83-1.
- Darby, Michael R, 1975. "The Financial and Tax Effects of Monetary Policy on Interest Rates," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(2), pages 266-276, June.
- Krause, Michael U. & Moyen, Stéphane, 2013.
"Public debt and changing inflation targets,"
06/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2011.
"Using inflation to erode the US public debt,"
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 524-541.
- Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 2009. "Using Inflation to Erode the U.S. Public Debt," NBER Working Papers 15562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2009. "Using Inflation to Erode the U.S. Public Debt," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt6xf174rs, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- S. M. Ali Abbas & Bernardin Akitoby & Jochen R. Andritzky & Helge Berger & Takuji Komatsuzaki & Justin Tyson, 2013. "Dealing with High Debt in an Era of Low Growth," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 13/7, International Monetary Fund.
- Robert Mundell, 1963. "Inflation and Real Interest," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 280-280.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/96. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.