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Safe Havens, Feedback Loops, and Shock Propagation in Global Asset Prices

Listed author(s):
  • Franziska L Ohnsorge
  • Marcin Wolski
  • Yuanyan S Zhang

We create a network of bilateral correlations of changes in sovereign bond yields and individual bank equity price changes since 2000. We extract some stylized facts from this network of asset price correlations and document the clear differences in asset price correlations between safe havens and non-safe havens: safe havens, as commonly defined, have higher sovereign-sovereign, bank-bank, and bank-sovereign correlations than nonsafe havens. In a simple shock propagation model, we illustrate how these higher correlations may turn safe havens into shock propagators. While we discuss safe havens as a group, we document how the US is in a category of its own, differing significantly from the other countries including Switzerland or Japan. Separately, we find that feedback loops amplify shocks, and those emanating from bank stress more than those emanating from sovereign stress.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 14/81.

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Length: 45
Date of creation: 09 May 2014
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/81
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  1. Massimiliano Caporin & Loriana Pelizzon & Francesco Ravazzolo & Roberto Rigobon, 2012. "Measuring Sovereign Contagion in Europe," Working Papers No 4/2012, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  2. P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C. G. de Vries, 2004. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 313-326, February.
  3. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
  4. Chinazzi, Matteo & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Reyes, Javier A. & Schiavo, Stefano, 2013. "Post-mortem examination of the international financial network," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1692-1713.
  5. Gilmore, Claire G. & Lucey, Brian M. & Boscia, Marian W., 2010. "Comovements in government bond markets: A minimum spanning tree analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4875-4886.
  6. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "What caused the decline in long-term yields?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue july8.
  7. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Schaumburg, Julia & Schienle, Melanie, 2014. "Forecasting systemic impact in financial networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 781-794.
  8. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
  9. Jammazi, Rania & Aloui, Chaker, 2012. "Crude oil price forecasting: Experimental evidence from wavelet decomposition and neural network modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 828-841.
  10. Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads; Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 10/120, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
  12. Beck, Roland & Rahbari, Ebrahim, 2011. "Optimal reserve composition in the presence of sudden stops," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1107-1127, October.
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