Transmission of Financial Stress in Europe; The Pivotal Role of Italy and Spain, but not Greece
This paper proposes a stochastic volatility model to measure sovereign financial distress. It examines how key European sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads affect each other; specifically, the paper analyses the volatility structure of Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Portugal. The stability of Germany is a close proxy for the resilience of the euro area as markets use Germanyâ€™s sovereign CDS as a hedge for systemic risk. Although most of the CDS changes for Germany during 2009â€“12 were due to idiosyncratic factors, market developments in Italy and Spain contributed significantly, likely due to their relative importance in the region. Changes in Greeceâ€™s sovereign CDS had no significant effect on Germanyâ€™s sovereign CDS despite initial widespread concerns about such linkages. Spain and Italy show a notable co-dependence in explaining each otherâ€™s volatility while Germany also plays an important role. It is found that extreme bad news led to persistent and nearly permanent effects on the stochastic volatility of European sovereign CDS spreads.
|Date of creation:||02 May 2014|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lekkos, Ilias, 2007. "Modelling multiple term structures of defaultable bonds with common and idiosyncratic state variables," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 783-817, December.
- Antonio Di Cesare & Giuseppe Grande & Michele Manna & Marco Taboga, 2012. "Recent estimates of sovereign risk premia for euro-area countries," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 128, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Bertrand Candelon & Amadou N Sy & Rabah Arezki, 2011.
"Sovereign Rating News and Financial Markets Spillovers; Evidence from the European Debt Crisis,"
IMF Working Papers
11/68, International Monetary Fund.
- Rabah Arezki & Bertrand Candelon & Amadou Sy, 2011. "Sovereign Rating News and Financial Markets Spillovers: Evidence from the European Debt Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 3411, CESifo Group Munich.
- Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999.
"No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements,"
NBER Working Papers
7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
- Kristin Forbes, 2012. "The "Big C": Identifying Contagion," NBER Working Papers 18465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013.
"The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis,"
Working Paper Series
1625, European Central Bank.
- Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
- Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "The Pricing of Sovereign Risk and Contagion during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 9249, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger & Park, Yung Chul & Claessens, Stijn, 2000. "Contagion: Understanding How It Spreads," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 15(2), pages 177-97, August.
- Kim, Mi Ae & Jang, Bong-Gyu & Lee, Ho-Seok, 2008. "A first-passage-time model under regime-switching market environment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2617-2627, December.
- Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2004.
"Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit-Default Swap Market,"
NBER Working Papers
10418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
- Edda Zoli & Silvia Sgherri, 2009. "Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/222, International Monetary Fund.
- Favero, Carlo A., 2013. "Modelling and forecasting government bond spreads in the euro area: A GVAR model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 343-356.
- Pedro Galeano & Ruey S. Tsay, 2010. "Shifts in Individual Parameters of a GARCH Model," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 8(1), pages 122-153, Winter.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Dungey, Mardi & Fry, Renee A. & Gonzalez-Hermosillo, Brenda & Martin, Vance L., 2011. "Transmission of Financial Crises and Contagion: A Latent Factor Approach," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199739837, December.
- Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads; Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 10/120, International Monetary Fund.
- Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Raphael A Espinoza, 2011. "Probabilities of Default and the Market Price of Risk in a Distressed Economy," IMF Working Papers 11/75, International Monetary Fund.
- Roberto Blanco & Simon Brennan & Ian W. Marsh, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Relation between Investment-Grade Bonds and Credit Default Swaps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2255-2281, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/76. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.