Official Demand for U.S. Debt; Implications for U.S. Real Interest Rates
By constructing and estimating a structural arbitrage-free model of demand pressures on US real rates, we find that recent purchases of US government debt securities by the Fed and foreign officials have significantly affected the level and the dynamics of US real rates. In particular, by 2008, foreign purchases of US Treasuries are estimated to have had cumulatively reduced long term real yields by around 80 basis points. The subsequent total impact of Fed purchases in 2008-2012 has been even larger: the quantitative easing (QE) has depressed real 10-year yields by around 140 basis points. Our findings also reveal that the Fed policy interventions and foreign official purchases affect longer term real bonds mostly through a reduction in the bond premium.
|Date of creation:||18 Apr 2014|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chib, Siddhartha & Ergashev, Bakhodir, 2009. "Analysis of Multifactor Affine Yield Curve Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(488), pages 1324-1337.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira, 2009.
"Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1696, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- John Campbell & Robert Shiller & Luis Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2587, Yale School of Management.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 15014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shiller, Robert J. & Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis Manuel, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," Scholarly Articles 10885503, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Canlin Li & Min Wei, 2012. "Term structure modelling with supply factors and the Federal Reserve's Large Scale Asset Purchase programs," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Dimitri Vayanos & Jean-Luc Vila, 2009.
"A preferred-habitat model of the term structure of interest rates,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
29308, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Dimitri Vayanos & Jean-Luc Vila, 2009. "A Preferred-Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 15487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vayanos, Dimitri & Vila, Jean-Luc, 2009. "A Preferred-Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 7547, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jean-Luc Vila & Dimitri Vayanos, 2009. "A Preferred-Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," FMG Discussion Papers dp641, Financial Markets Group.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006.
"The bond yield "conundrum" from a macro-finance perspective,"
Working Paper Series
2006-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The Bond Yield "Conundrum" from a Macro-Finance Perspective," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 83-109, December.
- Stefania D’Amico & William English & David López‐Salido & Edward Nelson, 2012.
"The Federal Reserve's Large‐scale Asset Purchase Programmes: Rationale and Effects,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages F415-F446, November.
- Stefania D'Amico & William B. English & David López-Salido & Edward Nelson, 2012. "The Federal Reserve's large-scale asset purchase programs: rationale and effects," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-85, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- D'Amico, Stefania & English, William & López-Salido, J David & Nelson, Edward, 2012. "The Federal Reserve’s Large-Scale Asset Purchase Programs: Rationale and Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 9145, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012.
"The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 3-46, 02.
- James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," NBER Working Papers 16956, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2009.
"Global Imbalances and Financial Fragility,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 584-88, May.
- Jack Meaning & Feng Zhu, 2012. "The impact of Federal Reserve asset purchase programmes: another twist," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/66. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.