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Official Demand for U.S. Debt: Implications for U.S. Real Interest Rates

  • Iryna Kaminska
  • Gabriele Zinna

By constructing and estimating a structural arbitrage-free model of demand pressures on US real rates, we find that recent purchases of US government debt securities by the Fed and foreign officials have significantly affected the level and the dynamics of US real rates. In particular, by 2008, foreign purchases of US Treasuries are estimated to have had cumulatively reduced long term real yields by around 80 basis points. The subsequent total impact of Fed purchases in 2008-2012 has been even larger: the quantitative easing (QE) has depressed real 10-year yields by around 140 basis points. Our findings also reveal that the Fed policy interventions and foreign official purchases affect longer term real bonds mostly through a reduction in the bond premium.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 14/66.

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Length: 46
Date of creation: 18 Apr 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/66
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  1. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 15014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. D'Amico, Stefania & English, William & López-Salido, J David & Nelson, Edward, 2012. "The Federal Reserve’s Large-Scale Asset Purchase Programs: Rationale and Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 9145, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Vayanos, Dimitri & Vila, Jean-Luc, 2009. "A Preferred-Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 7547, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Jack Meaning & Feng Zhu, 2012. "The impact of Federal Reserve asset purchase programmes: another twist," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  5. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," NBER Working Papers 16956, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Chib, Siddhartha & Ergashev, Bakhodir, 2009. "Analysis of Multifactor Affine Yield Curve Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(488), pages 1324-1337.
  7. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2009. "Global Imbalances and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 14688, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Canlin Li & Min Wei, 2012. "Term structure modelling with supply factors and the Federal Reserve's Large Scale Asset Purchase programs," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The bond yield "conundrum" from a macro-finance perspective," Working Paper Series 2006-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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