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Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization; A Reappraisal with Focus on Asia


  • Romain A Duval
  • Kevin C Cheng
  • Kum Hwa Oh
  • Richa Saraf
  • Dulani Seneviratne


This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Romain A Duval & Kevin C Cheng & Kum Hwa Oh & Richa Saraf & Dulani Seneviratne, 2014. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization; A Reappraisal with Focus on Asia," IMF Working Papers 14/52, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/52

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok, "undated". "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Working Paper 164456, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    2. Baxter, Marianne & Kouparitsas, Michael A., 2005. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 113-157, January.
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    5. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.
    6. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 2003. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 903-918, June.
    7. Yung Chul Park & Kwanho Shin, 2009. "Economic Integration and Changes in the Business Cycle in East Asia: Is the Region Decoupling from the Rest of the World?-super-," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 8(1), pages 107-140, Winter.
    8. Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May.
    9. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    10. Kumakura, Masanaga, 2006. "Trade and business cycle co-movements in Asia-Pacific," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 622-645, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Inoue,Tomoo & Kaya,Demet & Ohshige,Hitoshi, 2015. "The impact of China?s slowdown on the Asia Pacific region : an application of the GVAR model," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7442, The World Bank.
    2. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "China's slowdown and global financial market volatility: Is world growth losing out?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 164-175.
    3. Allan Dizioli & Benjamin L Hunt & Wojciech Maliszewski, 2016. "Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy," IMF Working Papers 16/212, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Zhai, Fan & Morgan, Peter, 2016. "Impact of the People’s Republic of China’s Growth Slowdown on Emerging Asia: A General Equilibrium Analysis," ADBI Working Papers 560, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    5. Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Tondl, Gabriele, 2017. "Macroeconomic imbalances and business cycle synchronization. Why common economic governance is imperative for the Eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 130-144.
    6. Sanjay Kalra, 2016. "6½ Decades of Global Trade and Income; “New Normal” or “Back to Normal” after GTC and GFC?," IMF Working Papers 16/139, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Hirata, Hideaki & Otsu, Keisuke, 2016. "Accounting for the economic relationship between Japan and the Asian Tigers," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 57-68.
    8. Cristina Constantinescu & Aaditya Mattoo & Michele Ruta, 2015. "The Global Trade Slowdown; Cyclical or Structural?," IMF Working Papers 15/6, International Monetary Fund.
    9. repec:bpj:bejmac:v:17:y:2017:i:1:p:24:n:2 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ahmed,Swarnali & Appendino,Maximiliano Andres & Ruta,Michele, 2015. "Depreciations without exports ? global value chains and the exchange rate elasticity of exports," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7390, The World Bank.
    11. Lathaporn Ratanavararak, 2018. "The Impact of Imperfect Financial Integration and Trade on Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Emerging Markets," PIER Discussion Papers 79, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Jan 2018.
    12. Allan Dizioli & Jaime Guajardo & Vladimir Klyuev & Rui Mano & Mehdi Raissi, 2016. "Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies," IMF Working Papers 16/170, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Ahmed Swarnali & Appendino Maximiliano & Ruta Michele, 2017. "Global value chains and the exchange rate elasticity of exports," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-24, January.
    14. Fan Zhai & Peter Morgan, 2016. "Impact of the People’s Republic of China’s Growth Slowdown on Emerging Asia: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers id:10509, eSocialSciences.
    15. repec:wbk:wbpubs:28422 is not listed on IDEAS


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