IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/14-50.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Debt Sustainability, Public Investment, and Natural Resources in Developing Countries; the DIGNAR Model

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanni Melina
  • Susan S. Yang
  • Luis-Felipe Zanna

Abstract

This paper presents the DIGNAR (Debt, Investment, Growth, and Natural Resources) model, which can be used to analyze the debt sustainability and macroeconomic effects of public investment plans in resource-abundant developing countries. DIGNAR is a dynamic, stochastic model of a small open economy. It has two types of households, including poor households with no access to financial markets, and features traded and nontraded sectors as well as a natural resource sector. Public capital enters production technologies, while public investment is subject to inefficiencies and absorptive capacity constraints. The government has access to different types of debt (concessional, domestic and external commercial) and a resource fund, which can be used to finance public investment plans. The resource fund can also serve as a buffer to absorb fiscal balances for given projections of resource revenues and public investment plans. When the fund is drawn down to its minimal value, a combination of external and domestic borrowing can be used to cover the fiscal gap in the short to medium run. Fiscal adjustments through tax rates and government non-capital expenditures—which may be constrained by ceilings and floors, respectively—are then triggered to maintain debt sustainability. The paper illustrates how the model can be particularly useful to assess debt sustainability in countries that borrow against future resource revenues to scale up public investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Melina & Susan S. Yang & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2014. "Debt Sustainability, Public Investment, and Natural Resources in Developing Countries; the DIGNAR Model," IMF Working Papers 14/50, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/50
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=41455
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Era Dabla-Norris & Jim Brumby & Annette Kyobe & Zac Mills & Chris Papageorgiou, 2012. "Investing in public investment: an index of public investment efficiency," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 235-266, September.
    2. Frederick van der Ploeg & Anthony J. Venables, 2011. "Harnessing Windfall Revenues: Optimal Policies for Resource‐Rich Developing Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 1-30, March.
    3. Araujo, Juliana D. & Li, Bin Grace & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2016. "Current account norms in natural resource rich and capital scarce economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 144-156.
    4. Charles R. Hulten, 1996. "Infrastructure Capital and Economic Growth: How Well You Use It May Be More Important Than How Much You Have," NBER Working Papers 5847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Hamdi, Helmi & Sbia, Rashid, 2013. "Dynamic relationships between oil revenues, government spending and economic growth in an oil-dependent economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 118-125.
    6. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    7. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2010. "Aggressive oil extraction and precautionary saving: Coping with volatility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(5-6), pages 421-433, June.
    8. Frederick Ploeg, 2012. "Bottlenecks in ramping up public investment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 509-538, August.
    9. Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & Shu-Chun S Yang & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2013. "Public Investment in Resource-Abundant Developing Countries," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 92-129, April.
    10. Pritchett, Lant, 2000. "The Tyranny of Concepts: CUDIE (Cumulated, Depreciated, Investment Effort) Is Not Capital," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 361-384, December.
    11. Christopher S. Adam & David L. Bevan, 2006. "Aid and the Supply Side: Public Investment, Export Performance, and Dutch Disease in Low-Income Countries," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 20(2), pages 261-290.
    12. Andrea Ferrero & Martin Seneca, 2015. "Notes on the Underground: Monetary Policy in Resource-Rich Economies," OxCarre Working Papers 158, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    13. Paul Collier & Rick Van Der Ploeg & Michael Spence & Anthony J Venables, 2010. "Managing Resource Revenues in Developing Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(1), pages 84-118, April.
    14. Torvik, Ragnar, 2001. "Learning by doing and the Dutch disease," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 285-306, February.
    15. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Stockman, Alan C & Tesar, Linda L, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 168-185, March.
    17. repec:hoo:wpaper:e-92-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Cooper, Russell & Johri, Alok, 2002. "Learning-by-doing and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1539-1566, November.
    19. Rafael A Portillo & Andrew Berg & Jan Gottschalk & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2010. "The Macroeconomics of Medium-Term Aid Scaling-Up Scenarios," IMF Working Papers 10/160, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
    21. Andrew Berg & Rafael A Portillo & Edward F Buffie & Catherine A Pattillo & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2012. "Public Investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability; Putting together the Pieces," IMF Working Papers 12/144, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Arestoff, Florence & Hurlin, Christophe, 2006. "Estimates of government net capital stocks for 26 developing countries, 1970-2002," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3858, The World Bank.
    23. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. "Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 317-334, December.
    24. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 1999. "The big push, natural resource booms and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-76, June.
    25. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2010. "Why do many resource-rich countries have negative genuine saving?: Anticipation of better times or rapacious rent seeking," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 28-44, January.
    26. Anthony Venables, 2010. "Resource rents; when to spend and how to save," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 17(4), pages 340-356, August.
    27. Stokke, Hildegunn E., 2008. "Resource boom, productivity growth and real exchange rate dynamics -- A dynamic general equilibrium analysis of South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 148-160, January.
    28. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    29. Frederick Ploeg, 2011. "Fiscal policy and Dutch disease," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 121-138, June.
    30. Johri, Alok & Lahiri, Amartya, 2008. "Persistent real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 223-236, December.
    31. Ton S van den Bremer & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2013. "Managing and Harnessing Volatile Oil Windfalls," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 130-167, April.
    32. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 179-206.
    33. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    34. Bems, Rudolfs & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2011. "The current account and precautionary savings for exporters of exhaustible resources," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 48-64, May.
    35. Yongsung Chang & Joao F. Gomes & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Learning-by-Doing as a Propagation Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1498-1520, December.
    36. Dizaji, Sajjad Faraji, 2014. "The effects of oil shocks on government expenditures and government revenues nexus (with an application to Iran's sanctions)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 299-313.
    37. Andrew M. Warner, 2014. "Public Investment as an Engine of Growth," IMF Working Papers 14/148, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Masao Ogaki & Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 38-71, March.
    39. Andrew Berg & Edward F Buffie & Catherine A Pattillo & Rafael A Portillo & Andrea Presbitero & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2015. "Some Misconceptions about Public Investment Efficiency and Growth," IMF Working Papers 15/272, International Monetary Fund.
    40. Christopher S Adam & David Bevan, 2014. "Public Investment, Public Finance, and Growth; The Impact of Distortionary Taxation, Recurrent Costs, and Incomplete Appropriability," IMF Working Papers 14/73, International Monetary Fund.
    41. Frederick van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2009. "Volatility and the natural resource curse," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 727-760, October.
    42. Martin Schindler, 2009. "Measuring Financial Integration: A New Data Set," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 222-238, April.
    43. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Klapper, Leora, 2012. "Measuring financial inclusion : the Global Findex Database," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6025, The World Bank.
    44. Satti, Saqlain Latif & Farooq, Abdul & Loganathan, Nanthakumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2014. "Empirical evidence on the resource curse hypothesis in oil abundant economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 421-429.
    45. Mehrara, Mohsen & Oskoui, Kamran Niki, 2007. "The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in oil exporting countries: A comparative study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 365-379, May.
    46. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1648 is not listed on IDEAS
    47. Giovanni Melina & Yi Xiong, 2013. "Natural Gas, Public Investment and Debt Sustainability in Mozambique," IMF Working Papers 13/261, International Monetary Fund.
    48. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
    49. Gros, Daniel & Mayer, Thomas, 2012. "A Sovereign Wealth Fund to Lift Germany’s Curse of Excess Savings," CEPS Papers 7229, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    50. Anthony J Venables, 2010. "Resource Rents: When to spend and when to save," OxCarre Working Papers 044, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    51. Rioja, Felix K., 2003. "Filling potholes: macroeconomic effects of maintenance versus new investments in public infrastructure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(9-10), pages 2281-2304, September.
    52. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi & Ramirez, Maria Teresa, 2003. "Institutions, infrastructure, and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 443-477, April.
    53. Corinne C Delechat & John W Clark JR & Pranav Gupta & Malangu Kabedi-Mbuyi & Mesmin Koulet-Vickot & Carla Macario & Toomas Orav & Manuel Rosales Torres & Rene Tapsoba & Dmitry Zhdankin & Susan S. Yang, 2015. "Harnessing Resource Wealth for Inclusive Growth in Fragile States," IMF Working Papers 15/25, International Monetary Fund.
    54. Horvath, Michael, 2000. "Sectoral shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-106, February.
    55. Christine J. Richmond & Irene Yackovlev & Susan S. Yang, 2013. "Investing Volatile Oil Revenues in Capital-Scarce Economies; An Application to Angola," IMF Working Papers 13/147, International Monetary Fund.
    56. Peter Hjertholm, 2003. "Theoretical and empirical foundations of HIPC debt sustainability targets," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 67-100.
    57. Ali, Issa & Harvie, Charles, 2013. "Oil and economic development: Libya in the post-Gaddafi era," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 273-285.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Bin Grace & Gupta, Pranav & Yu, Jiangyan, 2017. "From natural resource boom to sustainable economic growth: Lessons from Mongolia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 7-25.
    2. repec:oup:wbecrv:v:31:y:2017:i:1:p:71-96. is not listed on IDEAS
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Islamic Republic of Mauritania; Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 15/36, International Monetary Fund.
    4. World Bank Group, 2016. "Kenya Country Economic Memorandum," World Bank Other Operational Studies 24008, The World Bank.
    5. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2014. "Alternatives to Currency Manipulation: What Switzerland, Singapore, and Hong Kong Can Do," Policy Briefs PB14-17, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    6. Shantayanan Devarajan & Yazid Dissou & Delfin S. Go & Sherman Robinson, 2017. "Budget Rules and Resource Booms and Busts: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Analysis," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 31(1), pages 71-96.
    7. Giovanni Melina & Yi Xiong, 2013. "Natural Gas, Public Investment and Debt Sustainability in Mozambique," IMF Working Papers 13/261, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Debi Prasad Bal & Badri Narayan Rath, 2016. "Is Public Debt a Burden for India?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(2), pages 184-201, June.
    9. Arthelo P. PALMA, 2016. "Truth Behind Economic Performance, Natural Resources and Attracting Foreign Direct Investment," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 4(2), pages 68-77.
    10. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:473-486 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Dissou, Yazid & Go, Delfin S. & Robinson, Sherman, 2014. "Budget rules and resource booms : a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6984, The World Bank.
    12. repec:eee:joecas:v:15:y:2017:i:c:p:17-31 is not listed on IDEAS

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/50. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.