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Global Financial Transmission into Sub-Saharan Africa – A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge I Canales Kriljenko
  • Mehdi Hosseinkouchack
  • Alexis Meyer-Cirkel

Abstract

Sub-Saharan African countries are exposed to spillovers from global financial variables, but the impact on economic activity is more significant in more financially developed economies. Generalized impulse responses from a GVAR exercise demonstrate how the CBOE volatility index (VIX) and credit conditions around the globe impact a subset of sub-Saharan African economies and regions. The estimated relationships suggest that the effect of global uncertainty is more pervasive in exports, with the impact on economic and lending activities being mixed. The channels of transmission include the effects of global financial variables on commodity prices and on trading-partner’s macroeconomic and financial variables. The analysis suggests that shocks to credit conditions in the euro area and the U.S. have not significantly affected local lending conditions or economic activity in sub-Saharan Africa during 1991-2011, except perhaps in South Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge I Canales Kriljenko & Mehdi Hosseinkouchack & Alexis Meyer-Cirkel, 2014. "Global Financial Transmission into Sub-Saharan Africa – A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis," IMF Working Papers 14/241, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/241
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:inteco:v:150:y:2017:i:c:p:36-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Anh D.M. Nguyen & Jemma Dridib & Filiz D. Unsal & Oral H. Williams, 2017. "On the drivers of inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 151, pages 71-84.
    3. repec:cii:cepiie:2017-q2-150-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Dridi, Jemma & Nguyen, Anh D. M., 2017. "Inflation Convergence In East African Countries," MPRA Paper 80393, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Nina Biljanovska & Alexis Meyer-Cirkel, 2016. "Testing Shock Transmission Channels to Low-Income Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 16/102, International Monetary Fund.

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