IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/14-23.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Aggregate Stability and Balanced-Budget Rules

Author

Listed:
  • Matteo Ghilardi
  • Raffaele Rossi

Abstract

It has been shown that under perfect competition and a Cobb-Douglas production function, a basic real business cycle model may exhibit indeterminacy and sunspot fluctuations when income tax rates are determined by a balanced-budget rule. This paper introduces in an otherwise standard real business cycle model a more general and data coherent class of production functions, namely a constant elasticity of substitution production function. We show that the degree of substitutability between production factors is a key ingredient to understand the (de)stabilising properties of a balanced-budget rule. Then we calibrate the model consistently with the empirical evidence, i.e. we set the elasticity of substitution between labour and capital below unity. We show that compared to the Cobb-Douglas case, the likelihood of indeterminacy under a balanced-budget rule is greatly reduced in the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Ghilardi & Raffaele Rossi, 2014. "Aggregate Stability and Balanced-Budget Rules," IMF Working Papers 14/23, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/23
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=41322
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
    2. Besley, Timothy & Smart, Michael, 2007. "Fiscal restraints and voter welfare," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(3-4), pages 755-773, April.
    3. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
    4. Cristiano Cantore & Miguel León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2014. "Shocking Stuff: Technology, Hours, And Factor Substitution," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 108-128, February.
    5. Linnemann, Ludger, 2008. "Balanced budget rules and macroeconomic stability with non-separable utility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 199-215, March.
    6. Stockman, David R., 2010. "Balanced-budget rules: Chaos and deterministic sunspots," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 1060-1085, May.
    7. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2010. "Identifying the Elasticity of Substitution with Biased Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1330-1357, September.
    8. Zarembka, Paul, 1970. "On the Empirical Relevance of the CES Production Function," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 52(1), pages 47-53, February.
    9. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2008. "Great Expectations and the End of the Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1476-1516, September.
    10. Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2007. "Balanced Budget Rules and Aggregate Instability: The Role of Consumption Taxes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(523), pages 1423-1435, October.
    11. Marco Battaglini, 2009. "On the Case for a Balanced Budget Amendment to the U.S. Constitution," 2009 Meeting Papers 131, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Guo, Jang-Ting & Lansing, Kevin J., 2009. "Capital-labor substitution and equilibrium indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 1991-2000, December.
    13. Klump, Rainer & Saam, Marianne, 2008. "Calibration of normalised CES production functions in dynamic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 256-259, May.
    14. Guo, Jang-Ting & Harrison, Sharon G., 2004. "Balanced-budget rules and macroeconomic (in)stability," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 357-363, December.
    15. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 1997. "Balanced-Budget Rules, Distortionary Taxes, and Aggregate Instability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(5), pages 976-1000, October.
    16. León-Ledesma, Miguel A. & McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2010. "In dubio pro CES - Supply estimation with mis-specified technical change," Working Paper Series 1175, European Central Bank.
    17. McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2013. "Medium Run Redux," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(04), pages 695-727, June.
    18. McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2011. "Aggregation, the skill premium, and the two-level production function," Working Paper Series 1400, European Central Bank.
    19. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
    20. Berndt, Ernst R, 1976. "Reconciling Alternative Estimates of the Elasticity of Substitution," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(1), pages 59-68, February.
    21. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Fiscal Discipline and the Budget Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 401-407, May.
    22. Rainer Klump & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2007. "The long-term sucCESs of the neoclassical growth model," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 94-114, Spring.
    23. Olivier de La Grandville & Rainer Klump, 2000. "Economic Growth and the Elasticity of Substitution: Two Theorems and Some Suggestions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 282-291, March.
    24. Rainer Klump & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2012. "The Normalized Ces Production Function: Theory And Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 769-799, December.
    25. Barnes, Sebastian & Price, Simon & Sebastia Barriel, Maria, 2008. "The elasticity of substitution: evidence from a UK firm-level data set," Bank of England working papers 348, Bank of England.
    26. Dhrymes, Phoebus J & Zarembka, Paul, 1970. "Elasticities of Substitution for Two-Digit Manufacturing Industries: A Correction," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 52(1), pages 115-117, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. McKnight, Stephen, 2017. "Are Consumption Taxes Preferable To Income Taxes For Preventing Macroeconomic Instability?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(04), pages 1023-1058, June.
    2. Maxime MENUET & Alexandru MINEA & Patrick VILLIEU, 2017. "Public Debt, Endogenous Growth Cycles and Indeterminacy," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2467, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    3. Nourry, Carine & Seegmuller, Thomas & Venditti, Alain, 2013. "Aggregate instability under balanced-budget consumption taxes: A re-examination," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(5), pages 1977-2006.
    4. Nicolas Abad & Thomas Seegmuller & Alain Venditti, 2012. "Aggregate Instability under Labor Income Taxation and Balanced-Budget Rules: Preferences Matter," AMSE Working Papers 1217, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised Apr 2012.
    5. Murphy, R. & Palan, R., 2015. "Why the UK’s Fiscal Charter is Doomed to Fail: An analysis of Austerity Economics during the First and the Second Cameron Governments," CITYPERC Working Paper Series 2015/03, Department of International Politics, City University London.
    6. Jianpo Xue & Chong K. Yip, 2015. "Balanced-Budget Rules, Elasticity of Substitution, and Macroeconomic (In)Stability," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 17(2), pages 196-218, April.
    7. Kevin x.d. Huang & Qinglai Meng & Jianpo Xue, 2017. "Balanced-budget rules and aggregate instability: The role of endogenous capital utilization," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 17-00005, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    8. Fujisaki, Seiya, 2016. "Aggregate Stability in Monetary Economy with Consumption Tax and Taylor Rule," MPRA Paper 69833, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Union; Economic models; Budgets; United Kingdom; Business cycles; Capital; Labor markets; Fiscal policy; Production; United States; Constant Elasticity of Substitution; Indeterminacy; elasticity of substitution; tax rates; taxation;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.