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Official Financial Flows, Capital Mobility, and Global Imbalances

Author

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  • Tamim Bayoumi
  • Joseph E. Gagnon
  • Christian Saborowski

Abstract

We use a cross-country panel framework to analyze the effect of net official flows (chiefly foreign exchange intervention) on current accounts. We find that net official flows have a large but plausible effect on current account balances. The estimated effects are larger with instrumental variables (42 cents to the dollar on average compared to 24 without instruments), reflecting a possible downward bias in regressions without instruments owing to an endogenous response of net official flows to private financial flows. We consistently find larger impacts of net official flows when international capital flows are restricted and smaller impacts when capital is highly mobile. A further result is that there is an important positive effect of lagged net official flows on current accounts that we believe operates through the portfolio balance channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamim Bayoumi & Joseph E. Gagnon & Christian Saborowski, 2014. "Official Financial Flows, Capital Mobility, and Global Imbalances," IMF Working Papers 14/199, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/199
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joshua Aizenman, 2008. "International Reserve Management and the Current Account," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.), Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 11, pages 435-474 Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    3. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
    4. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "A Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: The Country Histories, 1946-2001," MPRA Paper 13191, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Branson, William H. & Henderson, Dale W., 1985. "The specification and influence of asset markets," Handbook of International Economics,in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 749-805 Elsevier.
    6. Atish R. Ghosh & Jonathan D. Ostry & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2017. "Shifting Motives: Explaining the Buildup in Official Reserves in Emerging Markets Since the 1980s," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(2), pages 308-364, June.
    7. Reinhardt, Dennis & Ricci, Luca Antonio & Tressel, Thierry, 2013. "International capital flows and development: Financial openness matters," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 235-251.
    8. Martin Schindler, 2009. "Measuring Financial Integration: A New Data Set," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 222-238, April.
    9. Jaewoo Lee & Jonathan David Ostry & Alessandro Prati & Luca A Ricci & Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Exchange Rate Assessments; CGER Methodologies," IMF Occasional Papers 261, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Bayoumi, Tamim & Saborowski, Christian, 2014. "Accounting for reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-29.
    11. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2013. "The Elephant Hiding in the Room: Currency Intervention and Trade Imbalances," Working Paper Series WP13-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    12. Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2008. "Global Current Account Imbalances: American Fiscal Policy versus East Asian Savings," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 479-498, August.
    13. repec:cup:apsrev:v:91:y:1997:i:03:p:531-551_21 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Joseph Gagnon, 2012. "Global imbalances and foreign asset expansion by developing-economy central banks," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are central bank balance sheets in Asia too large?, volume 66, pages 168-185 Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Nancy Marion, 2014. "China’s Growth, Stability, and Use of International Reserves," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 407-428, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Choi, Woo Jin & Taylor, Alan M., 2017. "Precaution Versus Mercantilism: Reserve Accumulation, Capital Controls, and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 11963, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Michael Bordo & Robert N McCauley, 2017. "Triffin: dilemma or myth?," BIS Working Papers 684, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Joseph E. Gagnon & Tamim Bayoumi & Juan M. Londono & Christian Saborowski & Horacio Sapriza, 2017. "Direct and Spillover Effects of Unconventional Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 191-232, April.
    4. Rasmus Fatum & James Yetman, 2018. "Accumulation of foreign currency reserves and risk-taking," BIS Working Papers 728, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Olivier Blanchard & Gustavo Adler & Irineu de Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?," Working Paper Series WP15-18, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    6. Milan Nedeljkovic & Christian Saborowski, 2018. "The Relative Effectiveness of Spot and Derivatives Based Intervention," CESifo Working Paper Series 7127, CESifo Group Munich.
    7. Beatrice D. Scheubel & Livio Stracca, 2016. "What Do We Know About the Global Financial Safety Net? A New Comprehensive Data Set," CESifo Working Paper Series 6184, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. Joseph E. Gagnon & Tamim Bayoumi & Juan M. Londono & Christian Saborowski & Horacio Sapriza, 2017. "Unconventional Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies," International Finance Discussion Papers 1194, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Stracca, Livio & Scheubel, Beatrice, 2016. "What do we know about the global financial safety net? Rationale, data and possible evolution," Occasional Paper Series 177, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International finance; Intervention; reserve accumulation; capital mobility; official flows; current account; current accounts; private flows; General;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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