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Portfolio Flows, Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets

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  • Nasha Ananchotikul
  • Longmei Zhang

Abstract

In recent years, portfolio flows to emerging markets have become increasingly large and volatile. Using weekly portfolio fund flows data, the paper finds that their short-run dynamics are driven mostly by global “push” factors. To what extent do these cross-border flows and global risk aversion drive asset volatility in emerging markets? We use a Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) Multivariate GARCH framework to estimate the impact of portfolio flows and the VIX index on three asset prices, namely equity returns, bond yields and exchange rates, in 17 emerging economies. The analysis shows that global risk aversion has a significant impact on the volatility of asset prices, while the magnitude of that impact correlates with country characteristics, including financial openness, the exchange rate regime, as well as macroeconomic fundamentals such as inflation and the current account balance. In line with earlier literature, portfolio flows to emerging markets are also found to affect the level of asset prices, as was the case in particular during the global financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Nasha Ananchotikul & Longmei Zhang, 2014. "Portfolio Flows, Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 14/156, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/156
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tillmann, Peter, 2013. "Capital inflows and asset prices: Evidence from emerging Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 717-729.
    2. Soyoung Kim & Doo Yong Yang, 2009. "Do Capital Inflows Matter to Asset Prices? The Case of Korea ," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 23(3), pages 323-348, September.
    3. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
    4. Eduardo Olaberría, 2014. "Capital Inflows and Booms in Asset Prices: Evidence from a Panel of Countries," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.), Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 8, pages 255-290 Central Bank of Chile.
    5. repec:eee:jimfin:v:81:y:2018:i:c:p:40-55 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Maria Kasch & Massimiliano Caporin, 2013. "Volatility Threshold Dynamic Conditional Correlations: An International Analysis," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 11(4), pages 706-742, September.
    7. Damien PUY, 2013. "Institutional Investors Flows and the Geography of Contagion," Economics Working Papers ECO2013/06, European University Institute.
    8. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    9. Taylor, Mark P & Sarno, Lucio, 1997. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Long- and Short-Term Determinants," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 11(3), pages 451-470, September.
    10. Gyntelberg, Jacob & Loretan, Mico & Subhanij, Tientip, 2018. "Private information, capital flows, and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 40-55.
    11. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Elías Albagli & Luis Ceballos & Sebastián Claro & Damián Romero, 2015. "Channels of US Monetary Policy Spillovers into International Bond Markets," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 771, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. repec:wfo:wstudy:59182 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Koepke, Robin, 2014. "Fed Policy Expectations and Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 63519, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Apr 2015.
    4. Bonizzi, Bruno, 2017. "Institutional investors’ allocation to emerging markets: A panel approach to asset demand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 47-64.
    5. repec:eee:jeborg:v:142:y:2017:i:c:p:140-163 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2016. "Global financial conditions and asset markets: Evidence from fragile emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 208-220.
    7. Alessio Ciarlone & Andrea Colabella, 2018. "Asset price volatility in EU-6 economies: how large is the role played by the ECB?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1175, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. repec:wsi:rpbfmp:v:20:y:2017:i:03:n:s0219091517500205 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Elisabeth Christen & Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Christian Glocker & Harald Oberhofer, 2017. "Austria 2025 – Austria's Competitiveness and Export Potentials in Selected Markets," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 90(1), pages 83-95, January.
    10. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Capital flows and GDP in emerging economies and the role of global spillovers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 140-163.
    11. Koepke, Robin, 2015. "What Drives Capital Flows to Emerging Markets? A Survey of the Empirical Literature," MPRA Paper 62770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Hasler, Nicole, 2016. "US International Equity Investment and Economic Fundamentals," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145840, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Renu Kohli, 2015. "Capital Flows and Exchange Rate Volatility in India: How Crucial Are Reserves?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 577-591, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Econometric models; Bond yields; Capital flows; Asset markets; Asset prices; Emerging markets; Exchange rates; Financial risk; Spillovers; International finance; Stock prices; portfolio flows; global risk aversion; exchange rate; bond; bond flows; risk aversion; stock market; Portfolio Choice;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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