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Is Japan’s Population Aging Deflationary?

Listed author(s):
  • Derek Anderson
  • Dennis P Botman
  • Benjamin L Hunt

Japan has the most rapidly aging population in the world. This affects growth and fiscal sustainability, but the potential impact on inflation has been studied less. We use the IMF’s Global Integrated Fiscal and Monetary Model (GIMF) and find substantial deflationary pressures from aging, mainly from declining growth and falling land prices. Dissaving by the elderly makes matters worse as it leads to real exchange rate appreciation from the repatriation of foreign assets. The deflationary effects from aging are magnified by the large fiscal consolidation need. Many of these factors will beset other advanced countries as well, but we find that deflation risk from aging is not inevitable as ambitious structural reforms and an aggressive monetary policy reaction can provide the offset.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 14/139.

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Length: 23
Date of creation: 04 Aug 2014
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/139
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  1. Bullard, James & Garriga, Carlos & Waller, Christopher J., 2012. "Demographics, redistribution, and optimal inflation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 419-440.
  2. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
  3. Ikeda, Daisuke & Saito, Masashi, 2014. "The effects of demographic changes on the real interest rate in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 37-48.
  4. Takatoshi Ito & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2006. "Two Decades of Japanese Monetary Policy and the Deflation Problem," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, NBER-EASE, Volume 15, pages 131-202 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2009. "The Saving Rate In Japan: Why It Has Fallen And Why It Will Remain Low," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(1), pages 291-321, 02.
  6. Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 2000. "Can age structure forecast inflation trends?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 31-49.
  7. Günter Coenen & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles Freedman & Davide Furceri & Michael Kumhof & René Lalonde & Douglas Laxton & Jesper Lindé & Annabelle Mourougane & Dirk Muir & Susanna Mursula & Carlos d, 2012. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 22-68, January.
  8. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
  9. Mitsuru Katagiri, 2012. "Economic Consequences of Population Aging in Japan: Effects through Changes in Demand Structure," IMES Discussion Paper Series 12-E-03, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  10. Derek Anderson & Benjamin L Hunt & Mika Kortelainen & Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton & Dirk V Muir & Susanna Mursula & Stephen Snudden, 2013. "Getting to Know GIMF; The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model," IMF Working Papers 13/55, International Monetary Fund.
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